Max Homa admires a tee shot

Apr 21, 2022; Avondale, Louisiana, USA; Max Homa plays from the 13th tee during the first round of the Zurich Classic of New Orleans golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Wevers-USA TODAY Sports

  • The 2022 Wells Fargo Championship from TPC Potomac at Avenel Farms begins on Thursday (May 5th)
  • Max Homa leads the field in ball striking over the past three months, and won this event in 2019
  • Read below for our favorite sleepers and longshots in the outright, T10 and T20 markets

The PGA Tour season rolls on this week with the Wells Fargo Championship, albeit with a twist. This year the event will move away from Quail Hollow, one of the signature tracks on Tour, since it’s playing host to the President’s Cup in September. TPC Potomac at Avenel Farms, a far less prestigious course, will take its place and perhaps the downgrade in venue has caused a lack of interest among the top pros.

Rory McIlroy is the lone top-18 player in the world teeing it up this week, but there’s still plenty of value to be found in the Wells Fargo Championship odds.

2022 Wells Fargo Championship Odds

Golfer Odds to Win Top-10 Odds Top-20 Odds
Max Homa +2800 +300 +140
Gary Woodland +3500 +330 +160
Ryan Armour +20000 +1600 +600
Sung Kang +20000 +1600 +600

Odds as of March 28th at DraftKings Sportsbook

TPC Potomac at Avenel Farms has hosted just two PGA Tour events in the past decade and a half, and they were won by Kyle Stanley and Francesco Molinari. A few traits those two players shared at their peaks were supreme accuracy and off the tee numbers, as well as elite iron play. As a result, we’ll be targeting players who share a similar skillset in our sleepers and longshots betting card.

Mad Max the Money Maker

Our first target in the outright market is Max Homa at +2800. Homa won this event at Quail Hollow back in 2019, but also possesses the tools it will take to win at this week’s course.

Homa leads the field in total ball striking over the past three months, ranking top-six in strokes gained off the tee, on approach and tee-to-green. He’s racked up five top-17 results in his first seven measured starts of 2022, gaining at least six strokes ball striking in three of his past five events.

TPC Potamac at Avenel Farms is expected to play very difficult this week which should suit Homa just fine. In addition to winning at the very challenging Quail Hollow, one of Homa’s other two career victories came at Riviera, which routinely is one of toughest tests on Tour.

Pick: Max Homa to Win (+2800)

Woodland Poised for Another Strong Finish

If we’re targeting elite ball strikers this week, there has to be room for Gary Woodland on our card. He’s gained at least 3.7 strokes ball striking in five of his past seven measured events, and has been trending towards his first victory since the 2019 U.S. Open.

Woodland is eighth in total ball striking over the past three months, and also ranks inside the top-five in strokes gained on approach and tee-to-green over that time frame.

If we look at his recent stats, the numbers are even more favorable. Over his past 12 measured rounds, Woodland leads the field in ball striking and ranks second in strokes gained tee-to-green. Not surprisingly, solid results have accompanied these ridiculous stats. He’s finished T8 or better three times in the past two-plus months, with a 24th and 21st place result mixed in there as well.

Pick: Gary Woodland to Win (+3500), Top-10 Finish (+330)

Top 20 Value Picks

  1. Ryan Armour (+600): We’re diving deep with our top-20 plays this week, starting with Ryan Armour. If you want accuracy and iron play than Armour offers plenty of value. He leads the Tour in driving accuracy this season, and ranks top-26 over the past 12 rounds in strokes gained approach and tee-to-green. He finished second in his lone career start at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farms, gaining 12.5 total strokes for the week on the field.
  2. Sung Kang (+600): In the two most recent tournaments played at this course, only Francesco Molinari has gained more total strokes than Sung Kang. The 34-year-old parlayed that into a pair of top-five results, and is fresh off coming to life in Mexico. After a string of missed cuts, Kang made the weekend last week gaining over 5 strokes ball striking.
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