Finney Smith shooting

Apr 25, 2022; Dallas, Texas, USA; Dallas Mavericks forward Dorian Finney-Smith (10) warms up before the game against the Utah Jazz in game five of the first round for the 2022 NBA playoffs at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

  • We’ve got a trio of Game 6s on Thursday night
  • Philadelphia, Dallas and Phoenix are each one win away from the second round
  • Read below for the latest NBA player props and best bets

Thursday night could see three Game 7s confirmed. It could also see the end of three series as the Sixers, Mavericks and Suns look to close out the Raptors, Jazz and Pelicans respectively.

Philadelphia is hoping it is third time lucky as they look to avoid a Game 7 against the Raptors. The Sixers are favored by just 1.5 after being blown out at Wells Fargo Center in Game 5.

While Devin Booker is still listed as out, the Suns are expected to get the job done on Thursday night with a 2.5 spread in their favor. It won’t be straight forward for the team with the best record in the NBA, though, with the Pels having fought hard throughout the series.

Books can barely split the Mavs and Jazz going into Game 6 despite a Game 5 masterpiece from Luka Doncic.

NBA Player Props – April 28th

PHI @ TOR Points Rebounds Assists Three Pointers Made
Joel Embiid (PHI) 27.5 (O -110 | U -110) 11.5 (O -134 | U +110) 3.5 (O +120 | U -148) 1.5 (O +146 | U -188)
James Harden (PHI) 20.5 (O +100 | U -122) 6.5 (O +106 | U -130) 9.5 (O -142 | U +116) 2.5 (O +116 | U -148)
Tyrese Maxey (PHI) 18.5 (O -110 | U -110) 3.5 (O -108 | U -114) 3.5 (O -144 | U +118) 2.5 (O +124 | U -160)
Pascal Siakam (TOR) 24.5 (O -104 | U -118) 8.5 (O -122 | U +100) 5.5 (O -128 | U +104) 0.5 (O -250 | U +190)
Scottie Barnes (TOR) 13.5 (O -112 | U -108) 8.5 (O +104 | U -128) 4.5 (O +110 | U -134) 0.5 (O -115 | U -111)
PHO @ NOP Points Rebounds Assists Three Pointers Made
Deandre Ayton (PHO) 19.5 (O -122 | U +100) 10.5 (O +116 | U -142) 1.5 (O +116 | U -142) OFF
Chris Paul (PHO) 19.5 (O -110 | U -110) 4.5 (O +118 | U -144) 11.5 (O -130 | U +106) 1.5 (O -104 | U -122)
Brandon Ingram (NOP) 25.5 (O -106 | U -116) 5.5 (O -134 | U +110) 4.5 (O -152 | U +124) 1.5 (O +104 | U -132)
CJ McCollum (NOP) 23.5 (O -118 | U -104) 5.5 (O +116 | U -142) 5.5 (O +112 | U -138) 2.5 (O -132 | U +104)
Jonas Valanciunas (NOP) 16.5 (O -116 | U -106) 12.5 (O -122 | U +100) 2.5 (O -114 | U -106) 0.5 (O +158 | U -205)
DAL @ UTA Points Rebounds Assists Three Pointers Made
Luka Doncic (DAL) 31.5 (O -110 | U -110) 8.5 (O -132 | U +108) 7.5 (O -104 | U -118) 3.5 (O +102 | U -120)
Dorian Finney-Smith (DAL) 12.5 (O -106 | U -116) 4.5 (O -134 | U +110) OFF 2.5 (O +116 | U -148)
Reggie Bullock (DAL) 10.5 (O -106 | U -116) 4.5 (O -134 | U +110) OFF 2.5 (O -128 | U +100)
Rudy Gobert (UTA) 14.5 (O -110 | U -110) 14.5 (O -110 | U -110) OFF OFF
Donovan Mitchell (UTA) 25.5 (O -120 | U -102) 4.5 (O +102 | U -124) 5.5 (O -106 | U -114) 2.5 (O -113 | U -113)

Odds as of Apr 28th at FanDuel Sportsbook

Luka Doncic has been superb on his return from injury, which has contributed to the shortening of the Mavericks NBA Championship odds. We saw plenty of Luka Magic in Game 5, and the Slovenian has the highest points line on Thursday night at 31.5.

Dorian Finney-Smith Gets Left Open

Dorian Finney-Smith is averaging almost 43 minutes per game in this series. Playing both the four and five, the Portsmouth native has been integral for Dallas at both ends. He’s been able to stretch the floor on offense and take any assignment on defense.

Finney-Smith has been one of the beneficiaries of Utah’s appalling perimeter defense – he’s often been left wide open on the perimeter when the Jazz give up dribble penetration. With 29 three-point shots over the last four games, Finney-Smith has made 11, passing the 2.5 threes line in three of those contests.

The Jazz aren’t suddenly going to be a good team at defending the perimeter. Their main adjustment would be to double Luka Doncic and force the ball out of his hands. While this is something they should experiment with, it’s not going to decrease Dallas’ three-point production. If anything, Finney-Smith will be left open even more frequently.

He’s playing big minutes and getting plenty of shots. Finney-Smith has hit this over in seven of his last 11 games – this is great value at plus odds.

  • Pick: Dorian Finney-Smith over 2.5 threes (+116)

Valanciunas Continues to Dominate the Glass

The playoff leader in rebounds per game at 15.6, Jonas Valanciunas has been a menace on the boards against the Phoenix Suns. While his average is inflated by 25 rebounds in Game 1, the former Raptor has still passed this 12.5 line in four of five.

Valanciunas is a big reason for the Pels’ 56 rebounding advantage through the series to date. He’s been especially impactful on the offensive glass, grabbing 15 across the last three games. New Orleans is simply bigger than the Suns, but Monty Williams is understandably not going to move away from the formula that won them 64 regular season games and has them 3-2 up in this series.

As a result, Valanciunas can continue to dominate on the glass. Phoenix will live with the Lithuanian getting a few putbacks.

Unlike other bigs in this postseason, Valanciunas has generally managed to stay away from foul trouble, which has helped to keep his minutes relatively consistent. Willie Green could also push him into the high thirties in an elimination game. This looks like a safe bet with how the series has played out thus far – take the over at 12.5, and it’s even worth considering at 13.5.

  • Pick: Jonas Valanciunas over 12.5 rebounds (-122)
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