Astros run celebration

May 11, 2022; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Houston Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez (44) is congratulated on scoring a run by center fielder Jose Siri (26) against the Minnesota Twins during the second inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

  • The Astros vs Twins odds favor Houston as -135 moneyline favorites on Thursday (May 12, 1:10 pm ET)
  • Houston will send Luis Garcia to the mound (2-1, 3.45 ERA), while Minnesota will counter with Josh Winder (2-0, 1.61 ERA)
  • Read below for the Astros vs Twins odds, analysis and betting prediction

Two of the American League’s top-four teams wrap up a three-game series in Minnesota on Thursday afternoon, as the Twins host the Astros. Minnesota enters play as the surprising leaders in the AL Central, while Houston looks like it will once again be one of the top championship contenders come October.

Astros vs Twins Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Houston Astros -135 -1.5 (+120) O 8.5 (-105)
Minnesota Twins +115 +1.5 (-140) U 8.5 (-115)

Odds as of May 11th at Caesars Sportsbook.

The reining AL champion Astros opened up as -135 moneyline favorites in a contest that features a total of 8.5 runs. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 pm ET at Target Field in Minneapolis, MN, with sunny, 85 degree temperatures in the forecast.

Houston vs Minnesota Probable Pitchers

Houston, a top-five contender in the World Series odds, will give the ball to Luis Garcia. The 25-year-old is fresh off back-to-back quality starts, allowing just three earned runs over his past 13 innings of work.

Last time out, he yielded just two hits and a single earned run over 7 innings to Detroit, striking out nine Tigers along the way. Prior to that, he held the mighty Blue Jays bats to two earned runs over 6 innings, but took the loss in a 2-1 decision.

Garcia has yet to face Minnesota this season, but fared quite well against them in 2021. He posted a 2.60 ERA against the Twins in two starts, holding Minnesota batters to a measly .200 average. The current Twins roster has had very little success against him, posting a .271 OBP over 17 at-bats.

Garcia vs Winder

2-1 Record 2-0
3.45 ERA 1.61
0.87 WHIP 0.72
.173 OBA .160
4.0 SO/W Ratio 5.0

Minnesota meanwhile, who were considered a longshot in the MLB divisional odds in Spring Training, will give the ball to rookie Josh Winder. The 2018 seventh round draft pick has been one the biggest surprises of the season, as he’s been unexpectedly exceptional over five appearances.

Winder started the season out of the bullpen but graduated to the starting rotation due to a plethora of injuries to the Twins staff. In two career starts, he’s yet to give up an earned run, allowing only five hits total over 12 innings of work.

Last time out, he scattered three hits and struck out eight in a 2-1 victory over the Athletics, lowering his ERA to 1.61 and his WHIP to 0.72. He’s posted a 20-to-4 strikeout-to-walk rate so far, and has surrendered just four earned runs over 22.1 total innings.

Astros vs Twins Betting Analysis

Normally, a date versus Houston would spell trouble for Winder. This season however, the Astros have actually underwhelmed offensively. Despite being loaded with three contenders in the AL MVP odds, Houston ranks below the AL average in runs and his, while boasting the second lowest batting average.

Pitching and defense has been their calling card, as they rank second in the AL in team ERA, third in strand rate and first in WHIP.

Minnesota on the other hand, has been a little more balanced, excelling both on the mound and at the place. The Twins rank third in the AL in team ERA and K/9 rate, and second in strand rate.

Offensively, Minnesota ranks above the AL average in runs and homers, while checking in at number four in OPS.

HOU vs MIN Last 10 Meetings

Date Away Team Home Team Score
5/10/22 Astros Twins HOU, 5-0
8/8/21 Twins Astros MIN, 7-5
8/7/21 Twins Astros HOU, 4-0
8/6/21 Twins Astros MIN, 5-4
8/5/21 Twins Astros MIN, 5-3
6/13/21 Astros Twins HOU, 14-3
6/12/21 Astros Twins MIN, 5-2
6/11/21 Astros Twins HOU, 6-4
5/2/19 Astros Twins MIN, 8-2
5/1/19 Astros Twins MIN, 6-2

Astros vs Twins Pick

Given the strength of both team’s pitching it should be no surprise that the majority of games for both Houston and Minnesota have failed to exceed the total this season.

The under is 16-3 in the Astros’ last 19 games, and only eight of their 30 contests this season have produced more than 8 runs.

Unders haven’t been quite so common in Twins games, but they’re still hitting at a 60% clip. Target field is one of the six least hitter friendly parks in MLB, and just five of Minnesota’s 15 home matchups have exceeded the total.

In a game featuring two pitchers in outstanding form, I’m looking to fade offense anyway I can. It may not be sexy, but under 8.5 runs is the play.

Pick: Under 8.5 runs (-115)

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