Liga MX

Dec 22, 2020; Orlando, Florida, USA; Tigres forward Andre-Pierre Gignac (middle) and teammates defender Carlos Salcedo (3) and defender Francisco Meza (21) celebrate after scoring the winning goal to defeat Los Angeles FC at the 2020 SCCL final at Exploria Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

  • Atlas hosts Tigres in the first leg of their Liga MX Clausura semifinal on May 18th at 10 pm ET. Atlas are +150 moneyline favorites
  • Tigres finished second and beat Cruz Azul on away goals in their quarterfinal, while Atlas finished third and took down Guadalajara 3-2 on aggregate
  • Get the Atlas vs Tigres odds, analysis, and betting prediction below

The Liga MX Clausura is down to its final four teams, with two semifinal first legs kicking off this week. On Wednesday, fans around the world can tune in to watch Atlas vs Tigres at the Jalisco Stadium in Guadalajara, Mexico.

The significance of this match cannot be understated given the stage in the competition. But, what makes this match a fascinating prospect is that the exact fixture was just played 18 days ago.

On that night, it took 54 minutes for Atlas to find the breakthrough in front of their home fans. Sadly, it was the only shot they put on target throughout the ninety minutes. Inevitably, a controversial handball penalty in the 92nd minute gave Tigres the leveler they so desperately were asking for. Now, the two sides meet again in hopes of advancing to the Clausura Finals.

Atlas vs Tigres Odds

Matchup Moneyline Odds
Atlas +150
Tigres +180
Draw +205

Odds as of May 17th at Barstool Sportsbook

If you’re new to betting on this sport, then take a look at our How to Bet on Soccer page.

The moneyline for this match narrowly favors Los Zorros with odds of +150. However, both of their prior matches in the Apertura and Clausura campaigns ended in 1-1 stalemates.

Over/Under and Spread

Additionally, this game is expected to be short of goals. In fact, the Under 2.5 total goals is heavily favored at odds of -177.

In fairness, this judgment makes sense given that these sides have only broken the 2.5 total goals mark on two of their last ten combined matches. Moreover, this bet has not hit in their last five head-to-head matches.

Finally, there is also plenty of value in the Tigres moneyline with odds of +180. While this is an away match for Miguel Herrera’s side, Tigres have the second-best traveling record in Liga MX, winning 45% of the time.

Atlas vs Tigres Prediction

Further, I expect this game to be played on a knife’s edge. Based on what we have seen in the first two meetings this year, Tigres generally likes to control the ball in their midfield a little bit more. Nonetheless, neither side has really seen a discernable difference in shots on goal or key opportunities.

It is clear that these two teams have the best attacks in Liga MX. Looking at the team sheets on Wednesday night and seeing the likes of Quiñones, Furch, Gignac and López tells you all you need to know about the class in both offensive thirds.

Atlas vs Tigres Liga MX Statistics

1.14 Goals per game 1.55
1.46 Expected goals per game 1.63
0.76 Goals allowed per game 1.00
1.22 Expected goals allowed per game 1.27
49% Possession % 55%
40% Clean Sheet % 35%
12.95 Shots per game 14.00

But, the defenses stand out more to me. Actually, at home, Atlas give up a staggeringly low 0.71 goals per match. On top of that, they have only conceded more than one goal at home on two occasions versus Tiajuana and Mazatlan.

In Atlas’ last home match against Guadalajara, the only reason they conceded was that they suffered a red card just 19 minutes prior. They have only conceded twice in their two other Apertura and Clausura playoff matches.

Los Zorros Look to Defend Apertura

While they suffered some hiccups in the Clausura, we have to remember just how good Atlas were in the opening tournament. They finished in second place in the regular season and absolutely gritted their teeth through some playoff matches. If you need refreshing, refer back to their 4-3 victory on penalties versus Leon.

They do face a tough opponent on Wednesday in Tigres through. Their offense has been set ablaze in the closing tournament and they will want to redeem themselves here and try to lift their first title since Clausura 2019.

Atlas vs Tigres Projected Lineups and Injuries

Atlas Projected Lineup: Vargas, Reyes, Nervo, Aguilera, Chalá, Márquez, Rocha, Zaldívar, Abella, Quiñones & Furch

Atlas Injuries & Suspensions: None

Tigres Projected Lineup: Guzmán, Angulo, Pizarro, Ayala, Soteldo, Carioca, Vigón, Dueñas, Quiñones, Gignac, López

Tigres Injuries & Suspensions: Reyes

Atlas vs Tigres Best Bet

Overall, the best bet for this match is the Atlas draw no bet with odds of -132. This pick is a little juicy, but at home, I would label this as nearly sure-fire for Los Zorros.

Pick: Atlas draw no bet (-132)

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