May 18, 2022; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Atlanta Braves third base coach Ron Washington (37) congratulates left fielder Marcell Ozuna (20) as he round the bases after hitting a home run in the third inning against the Milwaukee Brewers American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports
- The Braves vs Marlins odds favor Atlanta as -130 moneyline favorites on Friday (May 20, 6:40 pm ET)
- Atlanta will send Charlie Morton (2-3, 4.93 ERA) to the mound, while Miami will counter with Trevor Rogers (2-4, 4.45 ERA)
- Read below for the Braves vs Marlins odds, analysis and betting prediction
Atlanta’s World Series hangover is real. The defending champs are off to a 17-21 start, and sit fourth in the NL East. One of the teams they’re trailing is Miami, and the division rivals will open up a three-game set on Friday in South Beach.
Braves vs Marlins Odds
|Atlanta Braves||-130||-1.5 (+125)||O 7.5 (-105)|
|Miami Marlins||+110||+1.5 (-145)||U 7.5 (-115)|
Odds as of May 19th at Caesars Sportsbook.
Despite dropping three of their last four outings, the Braves opened up as -130 moneyline favorites, in a contest that features a total of 7.5 runs. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm ET at IoanDepot Park, with 13 mph winds and 81 degree temperatures in the forecast.
Atlanta vs Miami Pitchers
Atlanta will look to Charlie Morton on Friday to try and stop the bleeding. Morton is coming off his best two starts of the season, neutralizing both the Padres and Brewers, two of MLB’s top-10 contenders in the World Series odds.
Morton surrendered just four hits and one run total in those two outings, while striking out 14. He’s 9-5 all-time versus Miami in 19 starts, and has had plenty of success against this Marlins lineup.
“The thing I really look forward to is the swing and miss, that tells me what my stuff is doing. I feel like that’s what I build on.”
Charlie Morton after the Braves win against the Padres. pic.twitter.com/e3HsN1iOFT
— Bally Sports South (@BallySportsSO) May 14, 2022
Current Miami batters are hitting just .146 versus him in 81 at-bats, with a measly .181 slugging percentage and .399 OPS.
Morton vs Rogers
Miami will counter with Trevor Rogers, who’s fresh off a pair of strong starts of his own. Like Morton, he silenced the Padres and Brewers bats, holding them to one run and 10 hits total over 10.1 innings.
Trevor Rogers, Filthy 82mph Slider (home plate view) pic.twitter.com/QrjwuuTtuh
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 10, 2022
Rogers is 0-1 versus Atlanta this season, despite allowing only one run and four hits over 5 innings of work. He’s held current Braves hitters to a .225 average over 69 at-bats, while Ozzie Albies and Dansby Swanson are the only two players with more than two hits off him.
Braves vs Marlins Betting Analysis
Atlanta’s roster is loaded with contenders in the NL MVP odds, but despite the talent they’ve significantly underperformed.
Riley rakes!! 💪#ForTheA | @austinriley1308 pic.twitter.com/CY3hb0HpIE
— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) May 18, 2022
Both the Braves and the Marlins rank around league average in most key offensive categories, except when it comes to discipline at the plate.
Entering play on Thursday, Atlanta was tied for the league lead in strikeouts, while only Boston had a worse chase rate than Miami.
The Marlins have showed life offensively lately though. Miami has scored five or more times in four of seven contests, and do have significant home/road splits. They’re slugging .411 with a .737 OPS at home this season, compared to a .343 slugging percentage and .616 OPS on the road.
Consistency has been the Braves biggest issue, however they have found themselves in lots of high scoring games regardless.
ATL vs MIA Last 10 Meetings
|Date||Away Team||Home Team||Score|
Braves vs Marlins Pick
Seven of Atlanta’s last nine games have produced at least eight runs, while the recent history of contests against Miami have also been high scoring.
That was a wild one!#ForTheA pic.twitter.com/5uHoEXXGrj
— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) May 14, 2022
Nine of the past 11 meetings between these NL East foes have reached at least eight runs, with five of those outings hitting in double-digits.
The Braves offense is simply too good to stay down for much longer. Sure, Rogers has found success recently, but don’t let that scare you. Both the Diamondbacks and Phillies have touched him up for at least five runs over the past month, and Atlanta’s bats are very capable of doing the same.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-105)
As SBD’s resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he’d rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.