Al Horford dunk celebration

May 9, 2022; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Boston Celtics center Al Horford (42), right yells out after being fouled along with Boston Celtics guard Payton Pritchard (11) in the second half during game four of the second round for the 2022 NBA playoffs at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

  • The Celtics vs Bucks Game 5 odds favor Boston by 5.5 points on Wednesday, May 11 at 7pm ET
  • Boston evened the series at 2 with a 116-108 victory in Game 4
  • Read below for the Celtics vs Bucks odds, analysis, and betting prediction

Entering play on Tuesday, three of the four conference semifinals were deadlocked at  2. That includes the Bucks and Celtics series, after Boston pulled even in Game 4 with a 116-108 come from behind victory.

The series now shifts back to Boston on Wednesday for Game 5, and oddsmakers are expecting the Celtics to seize control.

Bucks vs Celtics Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Milwaukee Bucks +180 +5.5 (-115) O 214.5 (-110)
Boston Celtics -220 -5.5 (-105) U 214.5 (-110)

Odds as of May 10th from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Boston is currently a 5.5-point favorite, in a contest that features a total of 214.5. Tip-off is scheduled for 7pm ET at TD Garden in Boston, with TNT providing the broadcast coverage.

As for the series market, the Celtics are now -200 favorites to the advance to the conference final, while Milwaukee is a +170 ‘dog to move on. Boston checks in with the third shortest price tag in the NBA Championship odds at +380, while the Bucks are +800 to repeat.

Celtics vs Bucks Betting Analysis

Boston’s Game 4 victory was fuelled by an exceptional fourth quarter. The Celtics erased a 7-point deficit entering the final frame, by knocking down 16-of-19 shots, and outscoring Milwaukee 43-28.

The epic final 12 minutes was led by Al Horford, who scored 16 of his playoff career-high 30 points in the fourth quarter. Jayson Tatum added 12 of his 30 points in the final frame, as the duo made up for the absence of Jaylen Brown due to foul trouble.

Horford played like a man possessed all game long, and punctuated the comeback with this slam over Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Horford even showed a rare bit of emotion that would up earning him a technical foul, but his actions spoke to the significance of the moment. He and the Celtics would not be denied in Game 4 and now have the chance to take control of the series on Wednesday.

As for Milwaukee, Antetokounmpo led the Bucks with 34 points, 18 rebounds and 5 assists, but the team struggled to find secondary scoring with Khris Middleton missing once again. Middleton has now missed seven straight games with an MCL sprain but there’s reportedly a chance he returns later this series.

Jrue Holiday missed 17 of the 22 shots he took in Game 4, while big men Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis combined to shoot just 8-of-18.

Elsewhere on the injury front, Boston’s starting center Robert Williams III sat out with a knee injury. He’s currently listed as questionable for Game 5, but if he’s unable to go expect to see plenty of Grant Williams.

Celtics vs Bucks Pick

In terms of a Game 5 wager, let’s hone in on the total. Each of the first three games of this series went under, and it took the Celtics shooting 84% in the fourth quarter to push Game 4 over the number.

Milwaukee and Boston rank first and third respectively in defensive rating so far this postseason, while the Celtics led the league in that metric during the regular season. Both teams saw the majority of their First Round games go under, and Boston playoff contests are 5-3 to the under so far, despite playing Brooklyn and the Bucks, two of the East’s five highest rated offensive teams.

Not to be outdone, Milwaukee has been even kinder to its under backers. The Bucks have seen seven of their eight playoff outings so far fall under the total. The under is 4-0 in their road playoff games, failing to reach the number by an average of over 21 points per outing.

Another reason to like the under in Game 5 is the fatigue the elite players on both sides are dealing with. Tatum, Horford and Marcus Smart all played north of 40 minutes in Game 4, and mentioned they were gassed afterwards.

Antetokounmpo and Holiday each played 41 minutes, while Giannis has logged at least 38 minutes in all four games, and looked exhausted towards the end of Game 4.

Pick: Under 214.5 (-110)

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