Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman Christian Walker rounding the bases after a home run

May 3, 2022; Miami, Florida, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman Christian Walker (53) rounds the bases after hitting a solo home-run in the second inning against the Miami Marlins at loanDepot park. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

  • The Arizona Diamondbacks and Miami Marlins face off at loanDepot Park on Wednesday, May 4th
  • Both teams have exceeded expectations over the first month of the season, especially Miami
  • Read below for the Diamondbacks vs Marlins odds and betting preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks (12-13) face the Miami Marlins (12-11) on Wednesday at loanDepot Park. The series finale has a scheduled first pitch of 12:40 pm ET. The Diamondbacks will send Madison Bumgarner to the hill, while the home team counters with Elieser Hernandez.

Miami is a home favorite in this spot and is a +1700 longshot to win the NL East in the MLB Division odds, while Arizona is a +20000 longshot to win the NL West. The Snakes are expected to win only 65.5 games in 2022, while the Marlins are projected to win 75.5 in expected victory totals.

Diamondbacks vs Marlins Odds

Team Runline Moneyline Total
Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 (-170) +115 Ov 7.5 (+100)
Miami Marlins -1.5 (+145) -135 Un 7.5 (-120)

Odds as of May 3rd at Caesars Sportsbook.

He’s not quite back to his All-Star level of the mid-2010s,  but the start to Bumgarner’s 2022 season has been encouraging for Diamondback fans. Arizona is only 2-3 in his five starts — and the 32-year-old has yet to pitch past the fifth inning — but MadBum has also not allowed more than one earned run in any of his outings. He’s coming off his first victory of the season after going five innings and allowing three hits, an earned run and a walk while striking out two batters in a 6-2 win over the Cardinals on Friday.

From a results perspective, Hernandez has been better than the 2014 World Series MVP. The Fish are 3-1 in games the 27-year-old has started, including one quality start. The highly-touted Venezuelan is coming off a five-inning outing against the Mariners in which he allowed five hits, three earned runs and a walk against five strikeouts in an eventual 8-6 win last Friday.

Arizona vs Miami: Probable Pitchers

It’s been a long road back to borderline-elite status for Bumgarner, who infamously suffered bruised ribs and sprained his AC joint in his throwing shoulder in a dirt bike accident just over five years ago. The southpaw had never finished below .500 prior to that season and hasn’t finished over .500 since. But with 23 innings under his belt so far this year, Bumgarner has allowed 15 hits, only three earned runs, 11 walks and struck out 15.  He’s also allowed two home runs. And while the walks are concerning, the 1.17 ERA is beyond impressive.

As for Hernandez, he’s tossed 20.1 innings in 2022 over four starts, allowing 22 hits, 13 earned runs and five walks while striking out 20. The troubling stat for him has been the long ball — surrendering an MLB-most six over the first month.

Madison Bumgarner vs Elieser Hernandez

1-1 Record 2-1
1.17 ERA 5.75
3.27 xERA 3.53
16.0% K% 22.5%

Diamondbacks Going Deep, Marlins Trolling

These teams have split their last ten matchups — and the last two games (each decided by one run in Arizona’s favor) have been indicative of how close these two are.

The difference so far in this series has been the big fly. The Diamondbacks have hit four and the Marlins have hit zero. In addition to Pavin Smith going deep, Christian Walker hit one out as well, driving in three runs in the win.

One encouraging note: for the second consecutive night, Miami rallied from a 5-0 deficit with four runs in the seventh inning. Alas, the home team came up just short yet again.

The Marlins have +10000 odds to win the Fall Classic, while the Diamondbacks are +25000 longshots in the World Series odds.

Diamondbacks vs Marlins Last 10 Meetings

Date Home Team Away Team Score
5/3/22 Marlins Diamondbacks AZ, 5-4
5/2/22 Marlins Diamondbacks AZ, 5-4
5/13/21 Diamondbacks Marlins MIA-, 5-1
5/12/21 Diamondbacks Marlins MIA, 3-2
5/11/21 Diamondbacks Marlins AZ, 11-3
5/10/21 Diamondbacks Marlins AZ, 5-2
5/6/21 Marlins Diamondbacks MIA, 3-1
5/5/21 Marlins Diamondbacks MIA, 8-0
5/4/21 Marlins Diamondbacks MIA, 9-3
9/19/19 Diamondbacks Marlins AZ, 5-4

Diamondbacks vs Marlins Prediction

Miami had won seven straight coming into this series. But the Marlins have clearly been snakebit. With Bumgarner’s bounce-back season on full display and Arizona’s proclivity for the long ball — and Hernandez’s propensity for serving them up — I think the Snakes get the sweep.

Pick: Diamondbacks moneyline (+115)

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