Kyle Larson Favorite in DuraMAX Drydene Odds
NASCAR drivers will run on the 1-mile Dover Motor Speedway when the flag drops for the Sunday afternoon race beginning around 3:00 PM ET. This track banks at a 24 degree angle around turns and nine degrees on the straightaways.
There are few teams that dominated the Dover track, but there has been a dominance by Hendrick Motorsports. Five of the last ten winners have come from that group, including Alex Bowman. Larson had led the most laps a few times on the track and that has to be kept in mind.
Currently, Blaney stands at +500 odds (+400 at Caesars). Teammate Chase Elliott lists at +850 (+800 at Caesars Sportsbook). Some shorter odds exist on Caesars Sportsbook, but every Hendricks Motorsports Racing driver is +1000 or shorter.
Now, what will happen at Dover on a mild afternoon?
Alex Bowman’s win at Dover led a 1-2-3-4 sweep by Hendrick Motorsports. The last time one team finished 1-4 in a Cup Series event was Roush Racing in the 2005 season finale at Homestead-Miami. https://t.co/9gymwfOqS4
— Ryan McGee (@ESPNMcGee) May 16, 2021
The idea is that Hendrick Motorsports swept the first four positions last year. Hendrick tested well this year as well. The question is what happens on Sunday.
|Year||Race Winner||Pole Position||Most Laps Led|
|2021||Alex Bowman— Hendrick Motorsports Racing||Martin Truex Jr. — Joe Gibbs Racing||Kyle Larson — Hendrick Motorsports Racing|
|2020||Denny Hamlin — Joe Gibbs Racing||Chase Elliott — Hendrick Motorsports Racing||Denny Hamlin — Joe Gibbs Racing|
|2019||Martin Truex Jr. — Joe Gibbs Racing||Chase Elliott — Hendrick Motorsports Racing||Chase Elliott — Hendrick Motorsports Racing|
|2018||Kevin Harvick — Stewart-Haas Racing||Kyle Larson — Chip Ganassi Racing||Kevin Harvick — Stewart-Haas Racing|
|2017||Jimmie Johnson. — Hendrick Motorsports Racing||Kyle Busch — Joe Gibbs Racing||Kyle Larson — Chip Ganassi Racing|
The race has seen overtime only twice in its entire existence. Both times those races were won by Hendrick Motorsports and Jimmie Johnson (2015 and 2017).
Can Martin Truex Jr. Figure It Out?
Sports bettors were still okay after last week. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver still lingers in the NASCAR Cup Series odds, and the race odds as well. Furthermore, though Chase Elliott still leads the points standings, Martin Truex Jr. is only 70 points back with two top-fives and five top tens.
The top 10 average finishes at Dover since 2019 is Kyle Larson (2.0), Kevin Harvick (3.8), Martin Truex Jr (5.2), Alex Bowman (6.4), Cole Custer (10.3), Denny Hamlin (10.6), Brad Keselowski (11.2), William Byron (11.4), Kyle Busch (11.4), Joey Logano (12.0) pic.twitter.com/mDqoRVLjEK
— sparks_nascar (@Sparks_51) April 27, 2022
Now, Truex Jr. also is third in laps led on the track since 2019. Furthermore, Truex Jr. did win in 2019 and has a definite untapped potential on the “Monster Mile”. The driver of the No. 19 car is just +750 at Caesars but +1000 at Barstool. It is partially why other Hendrick drivers like William Byron and Alex Bowman (last year’s winner) could play a role here again.
DuraMAX 400 Predictions & Picks
This mile-long track has seen the following happen. There is almost a sort of the expected at Dover. Sort of.
In 4 of the last 5 Dover races, Alex Bowman has finished in the top five.
Last year, Bowman took the lead off pit road, led the final 97 laps and then raced his way to victory lane.
— Ryan (@ifantasyrace) April 25, 2022
That weather expects to be relatively tranquil on Sunday afternoon. The Next-Gen cars do not have restrictor plates and the issues of last week. So, expect drivers to try and avoid the dreaded cut tires. This race could become how drivers adapt to the tire wear.
The stage format is 120-130-150 for laps. Overtime cannot be ruled out because of the Next-Gen car.
Here are our best bets:
- Top Pick: William Byron to Win (+900)
- Other Contenders: Martin Truex Jr. (+1000), Ross Chastain (+1600), Denny Hamlin (+1200), Tyler Reddick (+1600)
- Longshots: Austin Cindric (+6000), Aric Almirola (+10000)