Jun 13, 2021; Paris, France; Novak Djokovic (SRB) poses with the trophy after winning the men’s final against Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) on day 15 of the French Open at Stade Roland Garros. Mandatory Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
- The 2022 French Open men’s singles draw was made Thursday, May 19 in Paris
- The result was that the three top favorites all ended up in the top half of the draw
- Read on as we predict whether Djokovic, Alcaraz or Nadal will get through it, and win the title
There were best-and worst-case scenarios in the hours before the 2022 French Open men’s singles draw was made Thursday evening in Paris.
Basically, every worst-case scenario came to pass.
And so No. 1 seed Novak Djokovic, No. 5 Rafael Nadal and No. 6 Carlos Alcaraz – the top three favorites to win the title – all ended up in the same half of the draw.
In a nutshell, only one of the three can be in the June 5 final.
French Open Men’s Singles Odds
|||Carlos Alcaraz (ESP)||+210|
|||Rafael Nadal (ESP)||+350|
|||Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE)||+400|
|||Alexander Zverev (GER)||+2300|
|||Casper Ruud (NOR)||+2700|
|||Andrey Rublev (RUS)||+3000|
|||Jannik Sinner (ITA)||+4000|
|||Daniil Medvedev (RUS)||+5000|
|[PR]||Dominic Thiem (AUT)||+10000|
|||Taylor Fritz (USA)||+12000|
|||Diego Schwartzman (ARG)||+12000|
|||Denis Shapovalov (CAN)||+12000|
|||Miomir Kecmanovic (SRB)||+12000|
|||Pablo Carreño Busta (ESP)||+15000|
|||Hubert Hurkacz (POL)||+15000|
Odds as of May 19 at Barstool Sportsbook
The Rest of the French Open Field
Meanwhile, No. 2 seed Daniil Medvedev’s record in Paris is less than .500. Only in 2021 did he even win a match for the first time.
No. 7 Andrey Rublev isn’t much better. And yet, both have a better shot at making the semifinals than 13-time champion Rafael Nadal does.
Nadal, defending champion in Rome, had his chronic foot issue flare up and lost in the third round to Canadian Denis Shapovalov.
The combination of that early exit and Stefanos Tsitsipas making the final dropped Nadal to No. 5 in the rankings and created all this chaos.
There was a 1-in-4 chance he could draw Djokovic in a potential quarterfinal. And he did.
After Nadal’s is number came up, there was a 1-in-3 chance that Alcaraz would end up in the same half as the two legends.
And he did.
Assuming Nadal is healthy enough to compete, that’s a pretty devastating blow to his hopes for a 14th title.
Alcaraz – Zverev Potential Quarterfinal
With the caveat of Nadal’s health, it’s hard to see any of the top contenders not making their assigned dates.
The weakest quarter is where the upsets could occur. On paper, it’s No. 2 Medvedev vs No. 7 Andrey Rublev.
Roland-Garros men’s singles draw :#RolandGarros pic.twitter.com/0UNzSnEkPR
— Roland-Garros (@rolandgarros) May 19, 2022
In reality, Medvedev could lose to No. 16 seed Pablo Carreño Busta in the fourth round; No. 11 seed Jannik Sinner could take out Rublev, also in the fourth round.
The bottom half is a free-for-all waiting for Tsitsipas to make a run to the final for the second straight year.
Previous French Open Winners and Finalists
|2021|| Novak Djokovic (SRB)|| Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE)|
|2020|| Rafael Nadal (ESP)|| Novak Djokovic (SRB)|
|2019|| Rafael Nadal (ESP)|| Dominic Thiem (AUT)|
|2018|| Rafael Nadal (ESP)|| Dominic Thiem (AUT)|
|2017|| Rafael Nadal (ESP)|| Stan Wawrinka (SUI)|
|2016|| Novak Djokovic (SRB)|| Andy Murray (GBR)|
|2015|| Stan Wawrinka (SUI)|| Novak Djokovic (SRB)|
|2014|| Rafael Nadal (ESP)|| Novak Djokovic (SRB)|
Djokovic The Favorite, With a Tough Road
There are two concerns about Djokovic’s title defence. The first is that either Nadal in the quarters, or Alcaraz in the semis, could beat him.
The second is that he beats them both, but ends up wrung out before he (potentially) meets Stefanos Tsitsipas in the final.
A year ago, Tsitsipas won the first two sets against Djokovic before falling in five.
French Open Top Seeds – Best Results
|Player||Appearances||Main Draw Career W/L||Best Result|
| Novak Djokovic||17||81-15||Winner (2016, ’21)|
| Daniil Medvedev||5||4-5||QF (2021)|
| Alexander Zverev||7||18-6||SF (2021)|
| Stefanos Tsitsipas||5||15-5||F (2021)|
| Rafael Nadal||17||105-3||Champion (13X)|
| Carlos Alcaraz||2||2-1||R32 (2021)|
| Andrey Rublev||4||4-3||QF (2020)|
| Casper Ruud||5||7-4||R32 (2019-20-21)|
First-Round Matches to Watch
Stan Wawrinka (-175) vs Corentin Moutet (+138)
Corentin Moutet is the type of annoying lefty who can get under anyone’s skin. And 2015 French Open champion Wawrinka, on the comeback from two knee surgeries, has not played a five-set match since the 2021 Australian Open.
With the French crowd factored in, it might have been tricky, except Moutet has played even less than Wawrinka – just three matches since February.
Prediction: Wawrinka (-175)
Cristian Garin (-136) vs Tommy Paul (+108)
Despite being an American, Paul has a game for the clay and won the French Open boys’ singles title in 2015 in his first-ever trip to Europe.
And he’s at a career-high ranking and seeded at a major for the first time.
Garin, a Chilean, has a great clay-court pedigree but has suffered with confidence and motivation this year, despite making a quarter-final run in Rome last week.
Prediction: Paul (+108)
Best Bet: Novak Djokovic (+175)
Longshot: Casper Ruud (+2700)
Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She’s written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.