Matt Kuchar, Dell Technologies Match Play Championship

Matt Kuchar hits out of the sand on the 16th hole during a round of eight match at the Dell Technologies Match Play Championship golf tournament Saturday, March 27, 2021, in Austin, Texas. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

  • The Wells Fargo Championship tees off Thursday, May 5th
  • Rory McIlroy is the +2000 favorite to be atop the leaderboard after day one
  • See the best bets and odds to grab the first-round lead at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm in the article below 

The PGA Tour heads to Potomac, Maryland for the Wells Fargo Championship. Usually this tournament is played at Quail Hollow Golf Club in Charlotte, NC, but because the course is hosting the President’s Cup later this year, it’s at a different venue. TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm is the track, which last hosted a PGA Tour event in 2018 (Quicken Loans National, won by Francesco Molinari).

Rory McIlroy, who has won this championship three times, is the defending champion. The field is light on superstar talent, as he’s the only top 10 player in the world within the Wells Fargo Championship odds, making him the favorite.

There are plenty of opportunities for Wells Fargo Championship sleepers and longshots to make some noise this week as well, with the field being not boasting much star power.

2022 Wells Fargo Championship First Round Leader Odds

Golfers Odds Tee Time
Rory McIlroy +2000 7:34am
Corey Conners +2800 7:45am
Tyrrell Hatton +3000 7:23am
Marc Leishman +3000 7:45am
Matt Fitzpatrick +3000 8:07am
Russell Henley +3000 1:38pm
Tony Finau +3500 7:23am
Seamus Power +3500 7:56am
Abraham Ancer +4000 7:45am
Keegan Bradley +4000 7:56am
Gary Woodland +4000 12:43pm
Max Homa +4000 12:54pm
Cameron Young +4000 1:49pm
Sergio Garcia +4500 12:43pm
Paul Casey +4500 1:05pm

Odds as of May 4th at DraftKings Sportsbook

The forecast is expected to be mainly cloudy with some sunny breaks throughout the day. Temperatures will be in the mid 50’s for those teeing off first, reaching low 70’s for the afternoon wave. It will be windier in the morning with gusts up to 13 miles per hour, with there being very little wind gusts for the afternoon players.

A benefit for those teeing it up in the morning is the exact same as it is every week – less bumpy greens with fewer players chewing them up.

Cameron Young a Strokes Gained Savant

With it being slightly easier conditions in the afternoon, we’ll target three players with late Thursday tee times.

Cameron Young (1:49pm) has made a name for himself on the PGA Tour this season, most notable where he tied for second at the Genesis Invitational. For a stretch of five tournaments, he posted nothing worse than a tie for 26th.

In his last 24 rounds, Young has been terrific in several ‘strokes gained’ categories, not to mention ranking sixth in birdie average for the season.

Cameron Young’s Strokes Gained Stats Last 24 Rounds

Tee-To-Green Ball Striking Off-The-Tee Total Short Game Putting
1 1 1 3 17 29

He had a blip missing the cuts at his first Players and Masters, but regained his form in his most recent outing.

Young tied for third at the RBC Heritage, finishing just a shot out of a playoff. That week, he gained over a whopping ten shots tee-to-green compared to his competitors. He also held the first round lead, and is 13th this season in scoring average on Thursday’s.

  • Pick: Cameron Young (+4000)

Matt Kuchar Has Regained Form

Until his most recent three event stretch, Matt Kuchar (1:05pm) hadn’t done a whole lot for quite some time, but he’s managed to go T-16 at the Valspar, T-2nd at the Valero and T-3rd at the RBC Heritage.

He’s also been a fast starter, ranking second best in opening rounds, of those competing this week. Kuchar has posted a score in the 60’s in nine of twelve Thursday’s on the campaign, including five of his last six.

2021-22 PGA Tour First Round Scoring Average Leaders

Golfer Average Score Odds
3. Russell Henley 67.77 +3000
5. Matt Kuchar 68.08 +6000
9. Jhonattan Vegas 68.54 +6500
13. Cameron Young 68.71 +4000
14. Jonathan Byrd 68.73 +14000
T-17. Keith Mitchell 69.00 +5000
T-17. Greyson Sigg 69.00 +9000
21. Joel Dahmen 69.07 +6500
22. Marc Leishman 69.09 +3000
23. Kiradech Aphibarnrat 69.10 +18000

With his game picking up steam of late, Kuchar is first in total strokes gained, short game and putting in his last twelve rounds.

  • Pick: Matt Kuchar (+6000)

Sung Kang Excels at This Track

If you’re interested in throwing a dart at a longshot with incredible course history, look no further than 2019 AT&T Byron Nelson champion Sung Kang (1:16pm). Keep in mind, his season hasn’t exactly been stellar, but his track record around TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm is.

In 2017, Kang tied for fifth at the Quicken Loans National, then the following year, he was even better, finishing third. Subsequently, his ‘strokes gained’ stats at this course are phenomenal.

Kang’s Strokes Gained Stats Last Eight Rounds at TPC Potomac

Total Approach Tee-To-Green Short Game Ball Striking Putting
2 2 3 6 8 8

For those two trips to this venue, he gained nearly a combined 14 shots tee-to-green and nearly 13 shots on approach. It may not be enough to offset his poor play of late, but these ludicrous odds are intriguing given his strong play here.

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