May 28, 2022; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Reds shortstop Kyle Farmer (17) reacts with right fielder Aristides Aquino (44) and third baseman Brandon Drury (22) after Farmer hit a three-run home run against the San Francisco Giants during the first inning at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports
- The San Francisco Giants are -145 favorites over the Cincinnati Reds in the wrap up of their weekend National League series on Sunday, May 29
- Winners of four in a row, Cincinnati is looking to sweep a series for the first time this season
- All of the Giants vs Reds odds, picks, predictions and best bets are analyzed in the following story
The Cincinnati Reds (16-30, 9-11 home) remain the worst team in the National League as they close out a three-game weekend series against the San Francisco Giants (24-21, 11-10 away). However, the Reds are also the hottest team in baseball.
A 3-2 victory over the Giants on Saturday extended Cincy’s winning streak to four games. That’s the longest current streak in MLB.
The Reds haven’t swept a series all season long and oddsmakers don’t think they will this time, either. It’s the Giants who are set as the -145 road favorites.
Giants vs Reds Odds
|San Francisco Giants||-145||-1.5 (+120)||O 9 (-120)|
|Cincinnati Reds||+125||+1.5 (-140)||U 9 (+100)|
Odds as of May 28th at Caesars Sportsbook
The first pitch is slated to be thrown at Great American Ballpark at 11:35 am ET on Sunday, May 29. The Cincinnati weather forecast is calling for clear skies, 8 mph wind and a temperature of 83 degrees.
Given the favored moneyline odds of -145, the Giants are being assigned an implied probability of victory of 59.18%. Bet $10 on them to win and a successful wager returns a payout of $16.90. Play $10 on the underdog Reds at +125 and you’ll garner $22.50 if Cincinnati wins. The Reds are set with a IP of victory of 44.44%.
The MLB betting trends are showing that the public is favoring the Giants at 62% in both the moneyline and the runline. Public betting is also leaning toward the under on the total to the tune of 62%. Cincinnati is 12-5-1 on the total at home in 2022.
Last season’s NL West champions , the Giants are currently +900 in the NL Division odds, sitting third.
Alex Cobb Performing Outperforming His Numbers
In his first season with the Giants, the 6.25 ERA of 39-year-old right-hander Alex Cobb is what first catches the eye. However, dig a little deeper and Cobb’s overall numbers are quite good.
His xERA of 1.93 is among the 2% in baseball. As well, Cobb’s xSLG (.277), xwOBA (.234) and xwOBAcon (.289) also rate within the top 2% of hurlers. He also rates among the top 10% in xBA (.195-6%), hard hit percentage (29.0-7%), and exit velocity (85.8-9%).
Alex Cobb has a 6.25 ERA and 2.72 FIP. This is getting ridiculous.
— Ben Kaspick (@BenKaspick) May 24, 2022
Cobb has allowed two earned runs over less in four of his seven starts this season. He’s 2-1 in his last three starts but oddly, is showing an ERA of 7.56 over that span. Cobb is 1-0 on the road but with a 9.31 ERA.
He’s 2-0 with a 1.92 ERA in two career starts against the Reds. Cobb pitched seven shutout innings for the victory in his only previous start at Great American Ballpark.
Cobb vs Mahle
When it comes to inconsistency, Reds right-hander Tyler Mahle appears to have mastered this quality. In his last start Tuesday against the Chicago Cubs, Mahle allowed eight runs in four innings, throwing 103 pitches. Mahle’s previous start saw him throw 105 pitches over 6.1 innings, allowing two hits and one run.
Tyler Mahle’s career home/away splits
home: 5.11 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 1.99 HR/9 5.12 FIP, 4.08 xFIP (239.2IP)
away: 3.84 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 0.83 HR/9, 3.62 FIP, 4.20 xFIP (292.2IP)
massive buy once freed from Cinci https://t.co/GphYUsrtuA
— Kev Mahserejian (@RotoSurgeon) May 24, 2022
In his last eight starts, Mahle is 1-5. He’s 0-3 with a 7.54 ERA in five home starts. In May, Mahle is 1-2 with a 6.20 ERA and that’s his best month of the season. Mahle’s ERA in his five losses is 10.45.
He’s 0-3 with a 9.18 ERA in four career starts against the Giants. San Francisco batters are hitting .318 against him with an OPS of .878.
Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers
|Reds Batters||Batting Average vs Cobb||Giants Batters||Batting Average vs Mahle|
|Albert Almora Jr||.000||Joey Bart||.000|
|Aristides Aquino||.000||Curt Casali||.333|
|Brandon Drury||.000||Brandon Crawford||.375|
|Kyle Farmer||.000||Thairo Estrada||.000|
|Aramis Garcia||.000||Stuart Fairchild||.000|
|Alejo Lopez||.500||Wilmer Flores||.333|
|Mike Moustakas||.333||Luis Gonzalez||.000|
|Tyler Naquin||.000||Tommy La Stella||.333|
|Matt Reynolds||.000||Evan Longoria||.333|
|Nick Senzel||.000||Joc Pederson||.083|
|Tyler Stephenson||.000||Darin Ruf||1.000|
|Joey Votto||.143||Donovan Walton||.500|
Several Giants batters enjoy digging in against Mahle. Curt Casali (1-for-3), Wilmer Flores (1-for-3), Evan Longoria (2-for-6) and Tommy La Stella (2-for-6) are all batting .333 against Mahle. La Stella has a solo inside-the-park homer pf Mahle. Darin Ruf is 2-for-2 (1.000) and Donovan Walton is 1-for-2 (.500). Brandon Crawford is 3-for-8 (.375) with an RBI.
The Reds have limited exposure to Cobb’s pitching. Only three Cincinnati batters have faced him previously. Mike Moutsakas is 5-for-15 (.333) with a homer and four RBI when facing Cobb.
Giants vs Reds Prediction
Cincinnati is going for the sweep but the Reds have no idea what they’ll be getting from Mahle on the bump.
At least Cobb’s underlying numbers are solid, even if his ERA looks alarming. And he’s handcuffed Cinci in the past.
Pick: San Francisco Giants ML (-145).
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.