TOP NOTCH SPORTS PICKS
We all know no matter how effective a horse racing system is there are bad days and good days. For example your handicapping technique may produce a high percentage of winners most every time, BUT who’s to say those winners will not be low-priced chalk because that’s all the track is giving on that day? Many of us would consider an all chalk day – a bad day.
I picked this technique up in my searches both online and offline – I did not invent this. I don’t know who did – but some of our handicappers have been using it for years.
First you need 3 pieces of information:
#1 – How much of a bankroll do you have?
#2 – How many races/games are you going to bet?
#3 – What is your approximate win percentage?
I am now going to show you how to apply the entire formula with hypothetical bankroll but real win percentages (this will allow you to bet up to 4 selections and come out ahead!)
#1 – Let’s say we have a $500 bankroll for the day.
#2 – We are going to play 3 tracks with 9 races each (27 races played)
#3 – We know the win % of us choosing 4 horses is around 70%.
Next what we do is make a margin of error (yes like the political polls!) here’s how we do it.
Take the win percentage 70% (0.70) and multiply is by the win percentage then into the number of races we’ll play.
.70 x.70 x 30 = 14.7 the we take the square root of 14.7 (use a calculator for this one!) the square root of 14.7 is 3.83 (hold on to that number.)
Now we take the number of races we are going to play 30 and multiply by.70. OK we get 21. So at a 70% expected win rate of 30 races one of our picks will hit
21 of the 30 races.
Now, we subtract 3.83 from 21 and we get 17.17 (our 3% margin of error). So now we round that off to 17. So we base our horse racing betting on 17 wins of 30 races. Next we subtract 17 from 30 and we get 13 (that’s how many losing races we expect to have.) Now we take our $500 bankroll and divide by 13. we get 38.46 or 38.
We are to bet $38 on each race. But wait a second. We’re betting 4 horses. Do we bet $38 on each horse? NO! From experience we may know that our top 2 selections win appx. 63% of all wins and the bottom 2 appx. 37% So now we multiply 38 x 63% = 23.94 or $24.00 We are to bet $24 on the top 2 selections.
Did I say EACH selection? No! Split the bet so we bet $12 to win on Selection 1 and 2. That leaves us with $14 to be split on the bottom 2 horses. So we bet $7 on picks 3 & 4. So the bets for a $500 Bankroll for 3 tracks (27 races) $38 per race looks like this:
Selection #1 – $12 win for 27 races
Selection #2 – $12 win for 27 races
Selection #3 – $7 win for 27 races
Selection #4 – $7 win for 27 races
My next suggestion is this. Have a total percentage gain goal in mind. And make it realistic!!!!
How much percentage will you be happy making on your bankroll today? 30%, 40% 60%? When you reach your goal, for goodness sakes stop betting and go home. Remember the longer you stay at the races and the more track you play, the more the odds favor the track, or casino, for that fact.
Again, this will work if you plan ahead and know your approximate win percentage with whatever horse racing system you decide to utilize.