Iga Swiatek vs Aryna Sabalenka

Apr 2, 2022; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Iga Swiatek (POL) poses for a portrait with the Butch Buchholz Championship Trophy after the women’s singles final in the Miami Open at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

  • No. 1 seed Iga Swiatek meets No. 3 seed Aryna Sabalenka in the first Italian Open women’s semifinal
  • The match will take place on May 14 at 6:00 am ET
  • As ever, Swiatek is the favorite. We break down the matchup and make a prediction

The women have rarely gone according to seeding in recent months. But No. 1 Iga Swiatek vs No. 3 Aryna Sabalenka was the expected semifinal on paper before the Italian Open began.

And it actually came to be.

Swiatek vs Sabalenka Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
[1] Iga Swiatek (POL) -5.5 (-107) -560 O 19.5 (-110)
[3] Aryna Sabalenka (BLR) +5.5 (-118) +400 U 19.5 (-115)

Odds as of May 13 at Barstool Sportsbook

Swiatek is 35-3 on the season and is riding a 26-match winning streak that shows no signs of stopping.

And she was the overwhelming favorite to become the Italian Open champion before the tournament began.

Sabalenka, who was a pedestrian 10-10 coming into the Italian Open, is a powerful player who, when right, can beat anyone in the world.

Swiatek Meets Andreescu, and Prevails

A highly anticipated first career meeting between Swiatek and 2019 US Open champion Bianca Andreescu was, for a set, everything anyone could ask for in Friday’s quarterfinal.

After that, with Andreescu having dropped the set in a tiebreak, it was one-way traffic for Swiatek.

But given Swiatek’s form, and Andreescu’s lack of match play, the 7-6 (2), 6-0 victory by the Polish star is too small a sample size at the wrong time to determine who will own that rivalry going forward.

Sabalenka Turns Tide vs Anisimova

It’s been no secret in 2022 that the previously fairly consistent Sabalenka has had the serving yips.

They have come and gone, as yips do. But as soon as she seemingly gets a handle on the situation, they pop up again in key moments and unravel any good tennis she has produced.

But in Friday’s quarterfinal against 20-year-old American Amanda Anisimova, it was the American who unraveled after playing a brilliant first set, and Sabalenka who looked like the cooler customer of the two.

Sabalenka had one ace (low for her) and eight double fauilts; Anisimova had no aces and seven double faults. The serving woes cancelled each other out.

The difference was that five of Sabalenka’s double faults came in that first set. By the third and deciding set, Anisimova won just 2-of-11 points on her second serve.

The win was all the more astonishing given Anisimova had beaten Sabalenka four times in four tries – including twice at Grand Slams. And that 4-0 record also included two wins on clay surfaces over the last six weeks, in Charleston and in the first round of Madrid last week.

It wasn’t as though Sabalenka figured anything out, changed her tactics or did anything proactive. She just played a little better, and Anisimova caved.

In other words, there wasn’t much there to indicate that Sabalenka’s 2022 swoon is over.

Swiatek vs Sabalenka Head-to-Head

20 (May 30, 2001) Age 24 (May 5, 1998)
Warsaw, Poland Birthplace Minsk, Belarus
5-9 Height 5-11
1 Career Grand Slam Titles 0
7 Career WTA Singles Titles 10
No. 1 (April 4, 2022) Career High Ranking No. 2 (Aug. 23, 2021)
No. 1 Current Ranking No. 8
$8,517,786 Career Prize Money $10,220,857
35-3 2022 Won/Loss record 13-10
0 Career Head to Head 0

Fourth Installment of Swiatek vs Sabalenka

These two top-level players met for the first time less than a year ago, when both qualified for the WTA Finals for the first time.

It was a dramatic match, to say the least, that Sabalenka came back and won.

So far, it’s her only win.

Swiatek vs Sabalenka Match History

Year Tournament Surface Score Winner
2022 Stuttgart (F) Indoor Clay 6-2, 6-2 Swiatek
2022 Doha (QF) Outdoor Hard 6-2, 6-3 Swiatek
2021 WTA Finals Outdoor Hard 2-6, 6-2, 7-5 Sabalenka

The two most recent clashes have come during Swiatek’s 25-win win streak.

The Doha quarterfinal was win No. 3; the Stuttgart final was No. 23.

Sabalenka’s weapons are good enough that they can translate to a clay court. But she’s more dangerous on the hard. And if her serve remains the liability it is, she doesn’t have much of a shot.

The outrights odds of -560 for Swiatek to win are something that would have been unthinkable a few months ago. But with her level of play, and Sabalenka’s struggles, it’s hard to see a path to victory for Sabalenka although the spread offers an intriguing option.

Best Bet: Sabalenka and 5.5 Games (-118)

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