Bianca Andreescu

Bianca Andreescu of Canada returns the ball to Anett Kontaveit of Estonia during their round three match of the BNP Paribas Open, Monday, Oct. 11, 2021, in Indian Wells, Calif.

  • Bianca Andreescu’s comeback continues against American Jessica Pegula Tuesday
  • The winner will make the Madrid Open quarterfinals
  • Pegula, the No. 12 seed, is the slight favorite. We break down the match and make a prediction

Bianca Andreescu has looked very good in her first two victories at the Madrid Open. Jessica Pegula has gotten through two solid opponents in good form. Something will have to give in Tuesday’s Jessica Pegula vs Bianca Andreescu match.

Pegula vs Andreescu Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
[12] Jessica Pegula (USA) -1.5 (+105) -110 O 21.5 (-120)
Bianca Andreescu (CAN) +1.5 (-143) -118 U 21.5 (-118)

Odds as of May 2 at BetMGM

The odds couldn’t be much closer for this second career meeting between Andreescu, currently ranked No. 111 but a Grand Slam champion and Pegula, at the peak of her career.

It’s expected to be a long one, as well.

Andreescu was way down the list of favorites before the tournament began. Pegula wasn’t even in the top 20. But the top seven seeds all exited early (or in the case of No. 1 Iga Swiatek, before the tournament began).

So it’s wide open.

Andreescu Routs Absent Collins

Those who only saw the 6-1, 6-1 scoreline for Andreescu’s second-round win over No. 6 seed Danielle Collins would understandably think, “She’s back!”.

But the reality is that if the first few games were competitive, the rest was a cakewalk as Collins (for reasons unknown) completely checked out.

There was none of her usual fire, and she tried (mostly unsuccessfully) to get the points done within a couple of hits.

On the plus side, Andreescu was fired up, probably for the first time in the two tournaments since she returned from a six-month break.

But it’s hard to judge form on this match because there was no pushback.

Pegula vs Andreescu Head-to-Head

28 (Feb. 24, 1994) Age 21 (June 16, 2000)
Buffalo, NY Birthplace Mississauga, Canada
5-7 Height 5-7
1 Career WTA Singles Titles 3
No. 13 (April 4, 2022) Career High Ranking No. 4 (Oct. 21, 2019)
No. 14 Current Ranking No. 111
$3,586,705 Career Prize Money $7,533,813
15-9 2022 Won/Loss record 3-1
0 Career Head to Head 1

Pegula Just Rolling Along

Always under the radar and never necessarily producing that big, standout result, Pegula has become one of the most consistent players on the WTA Tour.

She will not give as much away as Collins did on Sunday, that’s certain.

Pegula vs Andreescu Match History

Year Tournament Surface Score Winner
2019 Newport Beach 125 (F) Outdoor Hard 0-6, 6-4, 6-2 Andreescu

One Meeting Showed Andreescu’s Mettle

The only meeting between the two in early 2019 was a lifetime ago for both of them.

And it was a turning point for both.

It was in the final of a WTA 125 tournament in Newport Beach, California – on the way back home from Andreescu’s first successful Australian trip.

The 18-year-old had gone from the qualifying to the final in Auckland, before qualifying at the Australian Open for the first time and getting to the second round.

She went 16-2 in three tournaments and rose from No. 152 to No. 70 in less than a month.

For Pegula, about to turn 25, it was a tournament that brought her close to the top 100 for the first time after years of injury woes.

Andreescu overcame the dreaded bagel in the first set and won what was, at the time, the biggest title of her career.

We all know how 2019 went after that – Indian Wells, Canada, US Open titles.

Who Will Win? Go for Length

Pegula doesn’t have a ton of experience on the clay. But she’s improving. She’s 14-14 in her career, winning just over 50 percent of sets, and just under 50 percent of games.

In the last 52 weeks, she’s 9-6, winning 20-of-32 sets played. And the quicker conditions in Madrid should help a player born and bred on the hard courts.

Andreescu is 5-4 in the last year on clay but has won 70 percent of sets played.

The 21-year-old Canadian will be feeling very good about herself after the Collins win because she’ll have been focusing primarily on her side of the net. There was plenty of quality and positive body language.

She looks fit. But this will be only the second time since Miami in March 2021 that Andreescu will play three consecutive matches. And we haven’t seen any nerves (inevitable) kick in yet.

Andreescu has been the queen of the “over” (notwithstanding the match against Collins, of course). So that’s the more likely outcome at +135.

Best Bet: Over Two Sets (+135)

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