Jessica Pegula forehand

Apr 16, 2022; Asheville, NC, USA; Jessica Pegula (USA) returns a shot during her match against Dayana Yastremska (UKR) in the third match of the Billie Jean King Cup at Harrah’s Cherokee Center. Mandatory Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports

  • Jil Teichmann and Jessica Pegula are two surprise semifinalists at the Mutua Madrid Open
  • Their first career meeting will take place Thursday, not before 3pm ET
  • Pegula is the favorite; we break down the matchup and make a prediction

The Madrid Open women’s singles draw has been a shambles from the get-go.

And Jil Teichmann and Jessica Pegula are two of the four players who have navigated the choppy waters and made it to the penultimate round, along with Ons Jabeur and qualifier Ekaterina Alexandrova.

Teichmann vs Pegula Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
Jil Teichmann (SUI) +0.5 (-110) +114 O 22 (-108)
[12] Jessica Pegula (USA) -0.5 (-150) -138 U 22 (-102)

Odds as of May 4 at FanDuel

Most Top Seeds Bounced

World No. 1 Iga Swiatek pulled out after the Madrid draw was made, leaving a big hole at the top of the draw eventually filled in by a substitute seed, No. 17 Leylah Fernandez.

By the end of the first round No. 3 Aryna Sabalenka, No. 5 Karolina Pliskova, No. 10 Jelena Ostapenko, No. 13 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova were gone.

By the second round Naomi Osaka, No. 2 Paula Badosa, No. 4 Maria Sakkari, No. 6 Danielle Collins and No. 7 Garbiñe Muguruza joined them.

That left No. 8 Jabeur the top-seeded survivor from early on. and she’s still there.

No. 12 Pegula and the unseeded Teichmann came through in the top half vacated by Swiatek.

Teichmann Takes Down Slam-Killer

An unheralded player named Anhelina Kalinina paved the way for Teichmann’s run.

Kalinina defeated three former Grand Slam champions in a row: Sloane Stephens, Muguruza and No. 9 seed Emma Raducanu on her way to the quarterfinals.

Teichmann took care of Kalinina 6-3, 6-4 in 90 minuites Wednesday.

Pegula Outclasses Andreescu, Sorribes Tormo

Pegula’s biggest challenge was in the very first round, when she faced the situationally dangerous Camila Giorgi.

Giorgi can go out in an hour as easily as she can pull off a big upset. And on the quicker surface at altitude in Madrid, she gave Pegula all she could handle.

Pegula had to save a match point, and come back from way down in the third set to win 7-5, 2-6, 7-5.

After that, she was just too solid for the returning Bianca Andreescu (who had beaten Collins), and local favorite Sara Sorribes Tormo (who had eliminated Osaka).

Teichmann vs Pegula Head-to-Head

24 (July 15, 1997) Age 28 (Feb. 24, 1994)
Barcelona, Spain Birthplace Buffalo, NY
5-6 Height 5-7
2 Career WTA Singles Titles 1
No. 31 (Jan. 31, 2022) Career High Ranking No. 13 (April 4, 2022)
No. 35 Current Ranking No. 14
$1,901,658 Career Prize Money $3,586,705
12-9 2022 Won/Loss record 17-9
0 Career Head to Head 0

Teichmann Adds Home Flavour

Despite her Germanic name and clear allegiance to Switerland, Teichmann belongs to a few places.

In this case, Jil Belen Teichmann was actually born in Barcelona to Swiss parents and lived in Catalonia until she was 14.

The 24-year-old trains in Spain, has an all-Spanish team (coaches Alberto Martin and former WTA player Arantxa Parra Santonja, physio and trainer).

She is fluent in the language (among five she masters), as she demonstrated during post-match interviews on court.

So there will be a lot of crowd support for her.

Pertinently, she does have experience at the business end of a Masters 1000, after reaching the final last summer in Cincinnati.

Close Odds, Interesting Props

Random but true fact: Pegula has failed to cover the game spread against nine of her last 10 lefthanded opponents.

She is a pedestrian 5-7 against southpaws in her career. At the same time, Teichmann is only the third lefty she has faced in the 12 months.

Pegula and Teichmann are playing each other for the first time.

Another interesting fact: Teichmann covers the games spread about two-thirds of the time when she’s the underdog, as she is here.

The odds for Teichmann not to win a set (+184) – i.e. Pegula winning in straight sets – are attractive.

Over 9.5 games is at +100 for the first set.

This one feels like it will be fairly competitive. But the way Pegula handled both Andreescu and Sorribes Tormo, she’s feeling pretty great about pulling off the first WTA 1000 of her career.

With all that consistency in the bigger events, this would be a next logical step.

And with so many obstacles out of her way, the 28-year-old American may never have a better opportunity.

Best Bet: Pegula in Two Sets (+175)

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