Mitch Marner gets in front of a slapshot

May 6, 2022; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Cal Foote (52) passes the puck as Toronto Maple Leafs right wing Mitchell Marner (16) defends during the third period of game three of the first round of the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs against the Tampa Bay Lightning at Amalie Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

  • The Maple Leafs vs Lightning odds favor Tampa Bay as -115 moneyline favorites in Game 4 on Sunday (7pm ET)
  • Toronto leads the best-of-7 series 2-1, after a 5-2 victory in Game 3
  • Read below for the Game 4 Maple Leafs vs Lightning odds, analysis and betting prediction

Don’t look now, but the Toronto Maple Leafs are halfway home to winning their first playoff series since 2004. Of course, as any Leafs fan will tell you, Toronto has been in this position multiple times over the past decade-plus and have still managed to break the hearts of Leafs Nation every time.

Toronto earned a 5-2 win over Tampa Bay in Game 3 on Friday to take a 2-1 series lead. They can move one step closer to the elusive Second Round on Sunday, with another victory in Game 4.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Odds

Team Puck Line Total Moneyline
Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5 (-265) O 6.5 (-105) -105
Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 (+215) U 6.5 (-115) -115

Odds as of May 7th at Barstool Sportsbook.

Tampa Bay opened up as -115 moneyline favorites, in a contest that features a total of 6.5. Puck drop is scheduled for 7pm ET at the Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL, with TBS providing the broadcast coverage.

As for the series market, the Leafs are now -260 favorites to advance to the conference semis. Toronto owns the third shortest price tag in the Stanley Cup odds +700, while the Lightning are now 15-1 to three-peat.

Maples Leafs vs Lightning Betting Analysis

The Leafs came out of the gate hot in Game 3, scoring twice in the first 10 minutes of play to silence the rowdy Tampa crowd.

Toronto took a 3-0 lead early in the second period, before the Lightning finally got on the board halfway through the game. Tampa Bay cut the lead to one early in the third, and applied max pressure over the final 15 minutes, but couldn’t get the equalizer past Jack Campbell.

The 30-year-old turned away 32 shots in total to earn the game’s first star award, including multiple point blank chances during a Tampa Bay powerplay in the final few minutes.

The Leafs put the game away with a pair of Ilya Mikheyer empty net goals in the final 90 seconds, but noticeably absent on the scoresheet were Toronto’s big guns.

Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares and William Nylander were held goalless, while the four combined for just a single assist. Matthews, the top contender in the Hart Trophy odds, hasn’t scored since Game 1, while Tavares and Nylander, who make a combined $17 million per season, have just one assist between them through three games.

The Leafs don’t want to make a habit of leaning so heavily on Campbell on a nightly basis and will need more production from their top-four scorers if they want to hold off the defending champs again in Game 4.

As for the Lighting, they’re going to need more production from Steven Stamkos and Brayden Point. Stamkos, who notched 106 points this season, has just one assist through three games, while Point, who’s been a playoff hero in back-to-back postseasons has only one goal.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Pick

The good news for Tampa Bay backers is that they’ve been incredibly resilient over the past three postseasons. They’re 16-0 following a loss, which includes a 5-3 victory in Game 2.

A closer look at the Game 3 numbers suggest the Lightning were simply bitten by a hot goaltender. Tampa Bay had a 60-40 edge in Corsi percentage, while they produced 12 high danger scoring chances to only three by Toronto.

For the series, the Lightning hold a 55-45 edge in Corsi percentage, a 28-17 advantage in high danger scoring chances and a slightly better expected goals for. They’re due for some positive regression and I think it starts in Game 4.

Another reason to be bullish on Tampa Bay is the advantage they have between the pipes. Andrei Vasilevskiy is a top-four Vezina Trophy odds contender and a veteran of two Stanley Cup runs. His pedigree and overall play is superior to Campbell’s, and the longer this series goes the more evident that will become.

Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning Moneyline (-115)

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