Toronto Maple Leafs forward Auston Matthews celebrating a goal

May 2, 2022; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs forward Auston Matthews (34) reacts after his second goal of the game against the Tampa Bay Lightning during the third period of game one of the first round of the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

  • The Toronto Bay Lightning look to even their series with the Maple Leafs on Wednesday, May 4th
  • The Leafs handed the Lightning their first playoff shutout loss in 49 contests in Game 1
  • See the Game 2 Lightning vs Leafs odds, pick and prediction below

Talk about a statement game. It was as if the roles were reversed in game one between the Lightning and the Maple Leafs as Toronto looked much more the part of two-time defending Stanley Cup champs than the actual title holders from Tampa.

Without trying to sound too dramatic, Jon Cooper’s squad will be desperate for a win in game two, but after that embarrassing performance in the first game, the Lightning are +104 underdogs in the Wednesday NHL odds against the Leafs.

The puck drop for game two between the Lightning and Maple Leafs is scheduled for 7:30 pm ET on Wednesday, May 4th from Scotiabank Arena. Let’s preview the matchup and give you our best NHL pick in the Lightning vs Maple Leafs odds listed below.

Lightning vs Maple Leafs Odds

Game Time Team Puck Line Total Moneyline
Wednesday, May 4th Tampa Bay Lightning +104 +1.5 (-235) O 6.5 (-103)
7:30pm ET Toronto Maple Leafs -124 -1.5 (+190) U 6.5 (+129)

Odds as of May 3rd at Barstool Sportsbook.

At -124 on the moneyline, the Maple Leafs have an implied win probability of 55.36% to go up 2-0 in this best-of-7 series. The total once again sits at 6.5 goals with the over odds at -103 for two of the league’s highest scoring regular season teams.

Lightning Underdogs in Game 2 vs Maple Leafs

Riding the coattails of that game one win, the Leafs are making a play to have their Stanley Cup odds shorten.

If the Lightning are going to rebound in game two, their special teams will have to be much better. They went 0-for-5 on the power play, including a five minute major where the Leafs penalty kill had way more chances shorthanded than the Bolts did with the man advantage.

The Buds tallied one power play goal and one shorthanded marker, but the PK for Toronto really was a huge difference in this one. Although they had the 8th ranked penalty kill during the season, they led the league in shorthanded goals, shots and scoring chances when down a man.

Expect Tampa to be much better in this one and motivated after that humbling loss. It was the first time the Lightning had been shutout in the playoffs in 49 games.

Maple Leafs Put Stamp on Game 1

While it was a complete team effort from the goaltender out, the Maple Leafs stars made their mark on the ice and the scoresheet. Hart Trophy odds favorite, Auston Matthews scored two goals, one more then he did in the entire seven game first round series against the Canadiens last year.

Mitch Marner also did his best to erase memories of last year’s playoff disaster putting in a three point effort. For Tampa, Norris Trophy odds– contender Victor Hedman was a team worst -3 on the night. Don’t count on the Bolts hulking defender to put in a similar performance again.

Tampa Bay vs Toronto Recent Results

Date Home-Away Moneyline Puck Line Over/Under
05/02/2022 Toronto 5 Tampa Bay 0 TOR TOR Under
04/21/2022 Tampa Bay 8 Toronto 1 TB TB Over
04/04/2022 Tampa Bay 2 Toronto 6 TOR TOR Over
12/09/2021 Toronto 3 Tampa Bay 5 TB TB Over
11/04/2021 Toronto 2 Tampa Bay 1 (OT) TOR TB Under

Game one was the first time the Lightning and Leafs went under the total when playing each other in three games.

Lightning vs Leafs Game 2 Pick

On top of the momentum from their game one victory, the Leafs may also get reinforcements in the form of first line winger and Calder Trophy odds– contender Michael Bunting for game two.

History in the NHL playoffs dictates that momentum from game to game is temporary and fleeting. Head coach Jon Cooper was extremely unimpressed by his team’s play and basically said the Lightning gave the Leafs a “freebie.”

They’re the two-time defending champs and with their backs to the wall, it’s difficult to see this playoff hardened Lightning squad going back to Florida down 0-2. The Leafs are just 4-8 in their last 12 postseason games played on home ice, so expect a bounce back from Tampa in this one.

Take the Lightning as underdogs in the Wednesday NHL odds at Barstool Sportsbook.

Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning Moneyline  (+104)

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