May 4, 2022; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs forward Auston Matthews (34) tries to control the puck against Tampa Bay Lightning forward Anthony Cirelli (71) during the third period of game two of the first round of the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
- The Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs play Game 7 on Saturday, May 14th
- Toronto is listed as slight home favorites in the Game 7 Lightning vs Leafs odds
- Read below for Game 7 Lightning vs Leafs odds, picks and predictions
The Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs face off in Game 7 on Saturday, May 14th. Puck drop is set for 7:00 PM EST at Scotiabank Arena. CBC and TNT will carry the broadcast.
Toronto is listed as slight home favorites in the Game 7 Lightning vs Leafs odds. The total is set at 6.5 as Toronto aims to win its first playoff series since 2004.
Let’s take a look at the Game 7 Lightning vs Leafs odds and offer you our pick and predictions.
Lightning vs Leafs Odds
|Tampa Bay Lightning||+1.5 (-225)||O 6.5 (-114)||+106|
|Toronto Maple Leafs||-1.5 (+180)||U 6.5 (-107)||-125|
Odds as of May 13th at Caesars Sportsbook.
The Leafs are listed at +190 odds on the puck line, while the Lightning are priced at +190 to keep the game within two goals. Toronto’s -125 moneyline price gives them 53% implied probability to win.
Both Toronto and Tampa Bay have seen their 2022 Stanley Cup odds lengthen during their playoff series. The Leafs are now priced at +900, while the Lightning are available at +1400.
Lightning vs Leafs Betting Analysis
The Lightning vs Leafs series is headed to a Game 7 following Tampa Bay’s 4-3 overtime win in Game 6 on Thursday. Tampa Bay forward Brayden Point scored in the final two minutes of extra time to even the series 3-3.
The Lightning vs Leafs series has been very evenly matched through six games. The Bolts have a 50.74 xGF% in all situations, while the Leafs have a 49.26 xGF%. Tampa Bay has also generated slightly more high-danger chances at five-on-five than Toronto.
Tampa Bay’s resilience in the postseason has been one of the major storylines thus far. Jon Cooper’s team is now 17-0 following a playoff loss since 2020. The Bolts haven’t lost consecutive postseason games since 2019.
Specials teams could play a crucial role in Game 7, as both teams boast lethal power plays. The Lightning are striking at 22.6% efficiency with the man advantage, while the Leafs are operating at a 16% clip. Both clubs have top-10 penalty kill units.
Vasilevskiy vs Campbell Goalie Matchup
Considering how tightly played Game 7’s usually are, goaltending often ends up being the difference. Saturday’s projected NHL goalies see Andrei Vasilevskiy of the Lightning taking on Jack Campbell of the Leafs. Here’s how they matchup:
Andrei Vasilevskiy vs Jack Campbell Playoff Stats
|3.37||Goals Against Average||3.33|
|-1.0||Goals Saved Above Expected||-1.2|
|.882||High-Danger Save Percentage||.848|
Something important to note is that Vasilevsky has posted a shutout in five straight series-clinching games since 2020. Although the numbers suggest Campbell has been as good as Vasilevskiy, the Leafs’ netminder has never won a playoff series while Vasi has won eight straight.
Lightning vs Leafs Betting Trends
There are some important betting trends to note before making a wager on Game 7 Lightning vs Leafs. The Maple Leafs are 0-8 in their last eight playoffs games in which they have the chance to eliminate their opponent and advance onto the next round.
Since last winning a series in 2004, Leafs have had eight chances to win a series:
2013 BOS Game 7: L
2018 BOS Game 7: L
2019 BOS Game 7: L
2020 CBJ Game 5: L
2021 MTL Game 5: L
2021 MTL Game 6: L
2021 MTL Game 7: L
2022 TB Game 6: L
Arguably deserved W tonight the most of em
— Matt Larkin (@MLarkinHockey) May 13, 2022
The Lightning, meanwhile, are thriving as underdogs in the playoffs. The Bolts are 10-3 in their last 13 postseason games as an underdog, including a 5-3 win in Game 2 at Scotiabank Arena. Tampa Bay, however, is 0-4 in their last four games following a win.
When it comes to head-to-head trends for Lightning vs Leafs, the home team has the edge in the NHL odds. The home team has won five of the past seven meetings between Toronto and Tampa Bay. The “over” has also cashed in five consecutive meetings.
Lightning vs Leafs Game 7 Prediction
Will Saturday night in Toronto mark the first time since 2004 that the Maple Leafs win a playoff series? There are trends pointing to both sides earning a victory in Game 7. The Leafs have been great at home, but their inability to close out a series remains worrisome.
Game seven Saturday@SalesforceCA | #LeafsForever pic.twitter.com/GAms7C1gy0
— Toronto Maple Leafs (@MapleLeafs) May 13, 2022
Until the Leafs prove they can get it done when it matters, it’s hard to justify betting them for Game 7. The Lightning, meanwhile, are loaded with playoff veterans such as goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy and forward Brayden Point who have proven they can perform when the pressure is on.
Vasilevskiy’s play in big-time elimination games is the main reason to feel confident betting Tampa Bay in the Game 7 odds. This series has been so evenly matched that all the value lies with the underdog and the players who have gotten it done in this situation before.
Pick: Lightning ML (+106)
Brady is a passionate hockey fan and sports writer with over five years of experience specializing in digital media, plus a degree in Broadcast Journalism. His work has been published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.