Liverpool vs Villarreal

Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah celebrates after scoring his side’s fourth goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Liverpool and Manchester United at Anfield stadium in Liverpool, England, Tuesday, April 19, 2022. (AP Photo/Jon Super)

  • Liverpool hosts Villarreal in the first leg of their Champions League semifinal on April 27th at 3:00 pm ET. Liverpool are -385 moneyline favorites
  • Liverpool took down Inter Milan and Benfica to reach the Champions League semifinals while Villarreal had to upset both Juventus and Bayern Munich
  • Get the Liverpool vs Villarreal odds, analysis, and betting prediction below

We have reached the semifinals of the Champions League, and both Liverpool and Villarreal can smell the Stade de France in their future. For Liverpool, this could be their third Champions League final in just five short years.

Conversely, Villarreal are in the Champions League semifinals for the first time since 2005/06 when they lost to Arsenal 1-0 on aggregate. Additionally, this will be the first European clash between Unai Emery and Klopp since Sevilla’s Europa League triumph in 2016.

Regardless, Anfield is the scene for the first half of Liverpool vs Villarreal. Anfield is as hallowed and daunting a stadium as they come in European football. In fact, Liverpool’s last two semifinal home legs included 5-2 and 4-0 victories over Roma and Barcelona, respectively.

Liverpool vs Villarreal Odds

Matchup Moneyline Odds
Liverpool -385
Villarreal +1100
Draw +500

Odds as of Apr 25th at Barstool Sportsbook

If you’re new to betting on this sport, then take a look at our How to Bet on Soccer page.

Now, for this match, the moneyline heavily favors Liverpool with Champions League odds of -385. The Reds currently have future odds to win the Champions League of +120, even with Manchester City.

Over/Under and Spread

Furthermore, goals are to be expected in this match as the total is set at 3.5 total goals. This seems rather obvious considering Liverpool have the best front line in the world with the likes of Mo Salah, Sadio Mane, Diogo Jota and Luis Diaz. This bet hit in both of Liverpool’s quarterfinal matches against Benfica as well.

Also, there is some good value in getting Villarreal to cover the +1.5 spread in the first leg, with odds of +108. Villarreal have played well away from home in the Champions League and only lost one game by more than a goal. The matches against Bayern Munich in the previous round were a 1-0 win in leg 1 and a 1-1 draw in leg 2.

Liverpool vs Villarreal Prediction

However, it is hard to see anything but a Liverpool victory in this match. When the first leg is at Anfield, you should always favor the Reds to get it across the line. While they did technically lose at Anfield to Inter, it took three posts and a Lautaro Martinez wonder goal to even see out a one-goal victory.

Nonetheless, Liverpool is on a run of form that is truly special to watch, even as a neutral. Klopp’s side have only lost three games all season and in the past three weeks they have taken down Benfica, Manchester City, Manchester United and Everton.

Liverpool vs Villarreal UCL Statistics

2.40 Goals per game 1.80
1.95 Expected goals per game 1.59
1.10 Goals allowed per game 1.10
0.89 Expected goals allowed per game 1.42
62.8% Possession % 44.6%
86.4% Passing Accuracy % 81.3%
16.6 Shots per game 11.0

Specifically, the impressive part about that run of games is the various styles of play they have beaten. Liverpool have creators like Thiago to beat a low block and they have the depth to edge out a counter-attacking side. If you try to attack them, your defense better be ready because both Robertson and Alexander-Arnold will bomb down the wings.

Unai Emery Will Still Be Tricky

With that being said, Villarreal deserves respect and Liverpool will give it to them. The Yellow Submarine is unbeaten in their last five matches in all competitions and has been so calm and calculated in their Champions League affairs.

However, in Emery’s five matches against Liverpool, there has been an average of 5.2 goals per game. While those matches were with Sevilla and Arsenal, it does tip his hand a little bit in how he might approach this game versus Liverpool.

Liverpool vs Villarreal Projected Lineups and Injuries

Liverpool Projected Lineup: Alisson, Robertson, Van Dijk, Konate, Alexander-Arnold, Fabinho, Henderson, Thiago, Diaz, Mane, Salah

Liverpool Injuries & Suspensions: Firmino (questionable)

Villarreal Projected Lineup: Rulli, Estupinan, Torres, Albiol, Foyth, Coquelin, Parejo, Capoue, Lo Celso, Danjuma, Moreno

Villarreal Injuries & Suspensions: Moreno

Liverpool vs Villarreal Best Bet

Overall, the best bet for this match is both teams to score with odds of +100. This bet has good value and plays well given the history between these two managers. Liverpool’s defense is great, but Benfica proved that a good striker like a Gerard Moreno can tap into it.

Pick: BTTS (+100)

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