Manchester City’s Gabriel Jesus, 2nd left, celebrates after scoring his side’s fourth goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Manchester City and Watford at Etihad stadium in Manchester, England, Saturday, April 23, 2022. (AP Photo/Jon Super)
- Manchester City host Real Madrid for the first leg of the Champions League semifinals on Tuesday
- The Citizens are surprisingly a heavy -210 favorite
- Read on for the Manchester City vs Real Madrid odds, preview, and best bet
We’re officially down to just four clubs in Europe’s most prized competition. On Tuesday, English giants and last year’s finalists Manchester City host Real Madrid for a tantalizing Champions League semifinals first leg. The kick-off is set for 3:00 PM ET at the Etihad Stadium. Find the Manchester City vs Real Madrid odds below.
The Citizens narrowly beat Atletico in the quarterfinals thanks to a 1-0 victory in the first leg on home soil. Los Blancos meanwhile, knocked off title-holders Chelsea in a drama-filled two legs, beating the Blues 5-4 on aggregate.
Manchester City vs Real Madrid Odds
Odds as of April 24th at Barstool Sportsbook
The hosts are a heavy -210 favorite in the first leg and previously eliminated Madrid in the 2019/20 Round of 16 by a score of 4-2 on aggregate. City is at +120 in the Champions League odds, too.
Over/Under and Spread
The last two meetings between City and Real hit the over in goals, which means over 2.5 at -155 odds should offer some value here. They also have an implied win probability of 65% for Tuesday’s fixture, while the visitors are at just 15%.
Manchester City vs Real Madrid Prediction
Pep Guardiola’s side is still in the mix for winning the double, currently sitting a point above Liverpool in the Premier League title race and heading into the last four of the Champions League as a co-favorite alongside their English counterparts. While City did look lackadaisical in the second leg against Atleti as they played to a scoreless stalemate, the side has returned to their lethal ways as of late.
The Sky Blues suffered a 3-2 defeat to the Reds in the FA Cup semifinals just days after the Atletico match, but then beat Brighton 3-0 and Watford 5-1 this past Saturday. Gabriel Jesus was absolutely clinical at the Etihad against the Hornets, bagging four goals and certainly putting himself in line for a start on Tuesday. The Citizens have yet to lose on home soil in Europe as well.
Manchester City vs Real Madrid UCL Stats
|6-2-2||Record in UCL||7-0-3|
|5.4||Shots on Target||5.8|
|2.4||Goals Per Game||2.2|
|DDLWW||Record in Last Five Games||WWLWW|
Los Blancos are in fine form, winning five of their last six games. The only loss was against Chelsea, where they initially blew a 3-0 lead but ended up winning in extra time on aggregate thanks to a winner from the always clinical Karim Benzema. Carlo Ancelotti’s men didn’t play on the weekend but did take down Osasuna last Wednesday, 3-1. Real are now a whole 15 points clear at the top of the La Liga table and will be very focused on progressing to the Champions League showpiece.
While their backline did look vulnerable in the quarterfinals, this attack is a force to be reckoned with. Benzema has already netted 12 times in Europe, including four of his side’s five goals across both legs versus Chelsea. Vinicius Junior will also be a problem for City’s defense, supplying six assists and scoring twice in the UCL thus far. They will have their work cut out for them against a Man City side who rarely makes mistakes, though.
Manchester City vs Real Madrid Projected Lineups and Injuries
Manchester City Projected Lineup: Ederson; Walker, Dias, Laporte, Zinchenko; Silva, Rodri, De Bruyne; Mahrez, Jesus, Sterling
Manchester City Injuries & Suspensions: Joao Cancelo, Stones (questionable)
Real Madrid Projected Lineup: Courtois; Carvajal, Militao, Nacho, Marcelo; Kroos, Camavinga, Modric; Valverde, Benzema, Vinicius Junior
Real Madrid Injuries & Suspensions: Jovic, Hazard, Alaba, Casemiro, Mendy
Manchester City vs Real Madrid Pick
Pep rested some key players against Watford and will have his main weapons healthy for this match. Although there are a few uncertainties at the back from a health standpoint, the hosts are unbeatable at the Etihad in the Champions League.
Madrid’s attack could pose some problems, but the Citizens will come out unscathed and take an advantage into the second leg in the Spanish capital. With the moneyline offering little value, take City to win and both teams to score.
Pick: Manchester City to Win And Both Teams to Score (+210)
Quinn Allen is a sports journalist, with a background and education in broadcast journalism (BCIT ’17). He is a full-time associate editor at ClutchPoints by day, where he writes about soccer, baseball, basketball, football, and more. At night, Quinn is a frequent contributor at SBD.