Auston Matthews goal celebration

May 10, 2022; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews (34) celebrates scoring the winning goal during the third period of game five of the first round of the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs against the Tampa Bay Lightning at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

  • The Maple Leafs vs Lightning odds favor Tampa Bay as -130 moneyline favorites in Game 6 on Thursday (7pm ET)
  • Toronto leads the best-of-7 series 3-2, after a 4-3 come from behind victory in Game 5
  • Read below for the Game 6 Maple Leafs vs Lightning odds, analysis and betting prediction

Maybe the Toronto Maple Leafs are finally ready to win their first playoff series since 2004. Or maybe, Toronto is merely setting up Leafs Nation for max heartbreak in Game 7 for the fourth time in the last five years.

The Leafs are in position to close out their First Round series with the Lightning on Thursday, after a come from behind 4-3 victory in Game 5. Toronto leads the best-of-7 series 3-2, but oddsmakers are not expecting the Leafs to seal the deal in Game 6.

Leafs vs Lightning Odds

Team Puck Line Total Moneyline
Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5 (-225) O 6.5 (-120) +110
Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 (+185) U 6.5 (+100) -130

Odds as of May 11th at Barstool Sportsbook.

Tampa Bay opened up as -130 moneyline favorites, in a contest that features a total of 6.5. Puck drop is scheduled for 7:30pm ET at the Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL, with TBS providing the broadcast coverage.

As for the series market, the Leafs are now -350 favorites to advance to the conference semis. Toronto owns the third shortest price tag in the Stanley Cup odds +600, while the Lightning are now 22-1 to three-peat.

Leafs vs Lightning Betting Analysis

Before Game 5 was even seven minutes old the Leafs were already down 2-0. The early deficit silenced a packed Scotiabank Arena crowd, but to Toronto’s credit they didn’t lay down.

The Leafs were the better team for the final 40 minutes and cut the lead to one heading into the third. Toronto scored twice in a 73 second span to go in front, and then after Tampa pulled even, Hart Trophy odds favorite Auston Matthews sent Leafs Nation into a frenzy with the eventual game-winning goal.

It was Matthews’ first goal in the series since Game 1, and after being virtually silenced in Games 3 and 4, Toronto’s big guns came up huge in Game 5. Mitch Marner assisted on Matthew’s tally, while John Tavares had a goal and an assist and William Nylander notched three points.

Jack Campbell outplayed top-four Vezina Trophy odds contender Andrei Vasilevskiy by stopping 32 pucks, while Toronto dominated the 5-on-5 play for the first time all series.

The Leafs held a commanding 58% to 42% advantage in Corsi, and produced seven more high danger scoring chances than Tampa. The Lightning still hold a slight advantage in Corsi for the series, but Toronto has generated more high danger scoring chances (66 vs 61) and a slightly better expected goals for (16.6 vs 15.7).

Leafs vs Lightning Pick

So the question now becomes can the Leafs finally close out a playoff series? Toronto has lost eight consecutive series clinching games, earning the reputation of a choker and First Round failure.

Tampa meanwhile, has faced elimination just once in their back-to-back championship runs, beating the Islanders last year in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup semifinals.

However, the Lightning have been unbeatable over the past two postseasons in games following a loss. Literally. Tampa is 17-0 after a playoff loss and 10-4 overall in their last 14 postseason games at home.

The Lightning outplayed the Leafs in both games in Tampa, and we shouldn’t expect this veteran group of proven winners to lie down in Game 6. The Amalie Arena will be rocking, and I’m all in on the Lightning pushing this series to a deciding Game 7.

If you feel the same way, consider getting some action down in the series prop market. Tampa is currently available at +285 to win the series in seven games, which is a better payout than you’d get if you bet the Lightning on the moneyline in Game 6 and then rolled your stake over for Game 7.

We’ve seen Toronto blow 3-2 series leads before, and while this is the Leafs most talented group of the last decade, you can bet they’ll be gripping their sticks a little tighter if Tampa can send the series back to Toronto.

Picks: Tampa Bay Lightning Moneyline (-130), Lightning to Win in 7 Games (+285)

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