Luka Doncic celebration

Apr 25, 2022; Dallas, Texas, USA; Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) celebrates making a foul call against the Utah Jazz during the third quarter in game five of the first round for the 2022 NBA playoffs at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

  • The Mavericks vs Jazz Game 6 odds favor Utah by one-point on Thursday, April 28 at 10pm ET
  • Donovan Mitchell is listed as probable after limping off the court in Game 5
  • Read below for the Mavericks vs Jazz odds, analysis, and betting prediction

It’s a good news bad news situation for the Jazz. The good news is that it looks like Donovan Mitchell has escaped serious injury and will be able to play in Game 6. The Bad news is that only 18% of teams in NBA history have ever come back to win a series after losing Game 5 when tied 2-2.

Utah will face elimination on Thursday (April 28) when they host the red-hot Luka Doncic and the Mavericks.

Mavericks vs Jazz Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Dallas Mavericks -106 +1 (-110) O 209.5 (-110)
Utah Jazz -114 -1 (-110) U 209.5 (-110)

Odds as of April 27th from FanDuel Sportsbook

The Jazz opened up as a 1-point favorite, in a contest that features a total of 209.5. Tip-off is scheduled for 10pm ET at Vivint Arena in Salt Lake City Utah, with TNT providing the broadcast coverage.

Oddsmakers certainly don’t expect Utah to overcome their 3-2 deficit and advance to the Second Round regardless of Mitchell’s health. Dallas is currently -650 to move on to the conference semis, while the Jazz are +475.

Donovan Mitchell Injury Update

Mitchell limped off the court after Utah’s Game 5 loss with reported hamstring tightness. The pain was so bad that it caused him to double over in the tunnel.

There was speculation that he may not suit up in Game 6, but after a negative MRI Mitchell told the basketball world he’ll be “good to go”. Mitchell is currently listed as probable with deep bruises on both of his quads, and perhaps those contusions were responsible for his abysmal Game 5 performance.

Mitchell scored just 9 points, on 4-of-15 shooting, while committing four turnovers. He scored 32+ points in three of the first four games of the series, despite poor efficiency. Mitchell is shooting just 38% from the field in the series, and 19.5% from three.

Mavericks vs Jazz Betting Analysis

Mitchell wasn’t the only Jazz player who struggled from the field in Game 5 though. Utah shot 38% from the field and were 3-of-30 from beyond the arc. Not surprisingly given those number, they fell 102-77. It was the fewest points they’ve scored in any game since 2018, coincidentally also against Dallas.

The Mavericks on the other hand had no such issues on offense. Luka Doncic led the charge once again, pouring in 33 points to go along with 13 rebounds and five assists. Doncic, who missed the first three games of the series with a calf injury, hasn’t missed a beat since his return posting back-to-back double-doubles with at least 30 points in each outing.

Jalen Brunson, who carried the Mavs offense without Doncic, added 24 points and is averaging 28.6 points per game during the series.

The big story however was the Dallas defense. They forced 13 turnovers and yielded only seven offensive boards to one of the best rebounding teams in the league. The Mavs won the rebounding battle 49-40 and have limited the Jazz to 10 fast break points in the past two games combined.

Dallas is now one win away from their first playoff series victory since the won they NBA Championship in 2011. This is the second year in a row they’ve carried a 3-2 lead into a Game 6 in the First Round, after blowing that advantage last year to the Clippers.

Mavericks vs Jazz Pick

Don’t expect history to repeat itself this year however. Dallas has been far and away the better team since Game 1, and that has only been amplified with Doncic’s return.

The Mavs took Games 2 and 3 and led by double-digits in Game 4 before taking their foot off the gas. The let-up allowed Utah to steal a game they never should have won, but Dallas bounced back in a big way last time out.

On the Utah side, Mitchell clearly isn’t 100% and it’s fair to question how effective he’ll be in an elimination game given what we saw in Game 5.

Doncic meanwhile, has been making Jazz defenders look silly since he returned, and just look what he did to a three-time defensive MVP if you need more proof.

Let’s not overthink this one. Dallas is the better team, fuelled by a much bigger superstar. Take the Mavs on the moneyline to close out this series.

Pick: Dallas Mavericks Moneyline (-106)

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