Chris Paul signals during a stoppage

May 4, 2022; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Phoenix Suns guard Chris Paul (3) reacts against the Dallas Mavericks during the first half in game two of the second round for the 2022 NBA playoffs at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

  • The Mavericks vs Suns Game 3 odds favor Phoenix by 1-point on Friday, May 6 at 9:30pm ET
  • Phoenix leads the best-of-7 series 2-0, and is a -1400 favorite to advance to the conference final
  • Read below for the Mavericks vs Suns odds, analysis, and betting prediction

You get the sense that the Mavericks vs Suns series isn’t going to last much longer. Phoenix blew out Dallas 129-109 in Game 2 to take a 2-0 series lead, and the Suns can move one step closer to the conference final with another victory on Friday (May 6).

Phoenix has now defeated the Mavericks 11 straight times dating back to 2020, but despite the lopsided recent history, Game 3 in Dallas opened up with a very tight spread.

Suns vs Mavericks Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Phoenix Suns -110 -1 (-105) O 220 (-105)
Dallas Mavericks -110 +1 (-115) U 220 (-115)

Odds as of May 5th from FanDuel Sportsbook.

The Suns are 1-point favorites, in a contest that features a total of 220. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:30pm ET at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

As for the series market, Phoenix has a -1400 price tag to advance to the conference final. If you’re thinking about betting them to pull off a four-game sweep, that’s currently available at +220.

Phoenix Suns Betting Analysis

The Suns’ latest victory in Game 2 was fuelled by an exceptional final quarter. Word around the Phoenix locker room leading up to Game 2 was how they needed to finish better, after nearly blowing a 21-point lead in Game 1, and did they ever.

The Suns outscored the Mavericks 40-26 in the fourth, shooting 84.2% from the field. That is the second-best mark ever by a team in the final quarter of a playoff game, and Chris Paul is largely to thank.

CP3 scored 14 of his 28 points in the fourth, on 6-of-7 shooting. Paul has now scored at least 10 points in the final quarter of four playoff games this year, that’s more than anyone else.

Devin Booker added a pair of three’s late in the fourth quarter for good measure, as part of his team-high 30-point performance, but high efficiency numbers for him and Paul have been part of the norm all season. The two had the highest and second highest field goal percentage in clutch time during the regular season, shooting 56.9% and 56.8% respectively.

Phoenix set a playoff franchise record by shooting 64.5% from the field for the game, including 52% from three. It doesn’t matter who’s on the other squad with numbers like that, the Suns were never losing Game 2.

Dallas Mavericks Betting Analysis

Dallas, meanwhile, needs to get Luka Doncic some help. One game after pouring in 45 points against Phoenix, Doncic added 35 more points in Game 2 on 13-of-22 shooting.

The rest of the Mavericks starters shot just 10-of-25 from the field, while Reggie Bullock was the lone other starter to reach double-figures.

Still, Dallas managed to shoot 45% and knock down 17 triples, thanks to Phoenix’s underwhelming perimeter defense – more on that later. What sunk the Mavs, aside from horrible defense, was sloppy play and their inability to keep the Suns off the glass.

Dallas committed 17 turnovers, were outrebounded by nine, and outscored by 18 points in the paint. They’re minus-24 in the rebounding department through two games, and minus-18 in assists. Not exactly a recipe for success.

Mavericks vs Suns Pick

If recent history is any indication, Phoenix will likely take Game 3. They’ve beaten Dallas 11 straight times, and were an NBA-best 32-9 on the road this season.

However, what strikes me as more appealing is attacking the total. Both Games 1 and 2 produced 235 points or more, while six of the Suns’ last seven playoff outings have cleared 220 points.

Right now, the Suns are the perfect combination of incredible offense and shaky perimeter defense. Phoenix leads all playoff-teams in offensive rating, but has the lowest defensive rating of any of the remaining eight squads. You know who has the second lowest defensive rating? The Mavericks.

The Suns shot over 50% in both Games 1 and 2, while Dallas cleared 45% from the field in each outing and 40% from beyond the arc.

Pick: Over 220 (-105)

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