Mats vs Nationals Picks

May 11, 2022; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; New York Mets designated hitter Pete Alonso (20) celebrates with right fielder Starling Marte (6) after hitting a two-run home run against the Washington Nationals during the first inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Scott Taetsch-USA TODAY Sports

  • The New York Mets are -160 road favorites as they face the Washington Nationals in a National League game on Thursday, May 12
  • This will be the 12th successive game played between the two teams at Nationals Park
  • All of the Mets vs Nationals odds, picks, and best bets are analyzed in the following story

The New York Mets (21-11, 12-6 road) and Washington Nationals (11-21, 4-12 home) were mirror images of each other as they entered play on Wednesday.

The Mets lead the National League East. Washington is the basement dweller in the division.

Oddsmakers expect that this disparity will again be in play as theses two clubs close out a three-game series on Thursday afternoon. New York is set as the -160 road favorites in the Mets vs Nationals picks. At 19-13 (59.4%) the Mets are #3 in MLB against the runline.

Mets vs Nationals Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
New York Mets -160 -1.5 (+110) Over 9 (+105)
Washington Nationals +140 +1.5 (-130) Under 9 (-125)

Odds as of May 11th at Caesars Sportsbook.

First pitch at Nationals Park for this Thursday, May 12 afternoon tilt is set for 12:30pm ET. That may prove to be optimistic, however. Rain is in the forecast, along with 6 mph and a temperature of 58 degrees.

The Mets are +165 second betting choices to win in the NL East odds. Washington is a distant +10000 in the betting line on the NL East winner.

Mets vs Nationals Probable Pitchers

Right-hander Walker will be making his fourth start of the year. He’s without a decision this season. The Mets are 1-2 in his three previous starts, all of which have come against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Walker didn’t allow an earned run through his first two starts, which covered seven innings. However, the Phillies got to him for seven runs, six earned and two home runs in four innings of work on May 5 in his previous start. In his last two starts, he’s issued more walks (four) than he’s chalked up strikeouts (three).

This will be Walker’s fifth career start against the Nationals. He’s 1-1 with a 5.41 ERA when facing Washington. Walker has struck out 21 Nats batters in 22.1 innings.

At Nationals Park, Walker is 0-1 in three starts with a 7.63 ERA. He’s allowed 21 hits, four of them homers and 13 earned runs in 15.1 innings of work.

Walker vs Adon

0-0 Record 1-5
4.91 ERA 6.99
4.26 xERA 6.90
1.36 WHIP 1.66
1.75 SO/W Ratio 4.13

Right-hander Adon is turning a triple play on the NL leaderboard that no pitcher desires to be posted next to their name on the stats sheet. He’s leading the league in losses (five), bases on balls (18) and wild pitches (five). He’s also given up 29 hits and four homers in 28.1 innings on the bump.

Adon has made it beyond the sixth inning just once in six starts. He’s given up at least three earned runs in five of those six starts. However, after serving up three homers over his first nine innings of work, Adon has surrendered just one long ball over the past 19.1 innings.

He’s also been much better at Nationals Park (1-2, 4.95 ERA) than on the road (0-3, 8.56 ERA). Adon ranks among the bottom 4% of MLB pitchers in xERA (6.90), xwOBA (4.23) and xwOBAcon (4.93). He’s among the bottom 7% in xSLG (.595).

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

Nationals Batters Batting Average vs Walker Mets Batters Batting Average vs Adon
Riley Adams .000 Pete Alonso .333
Josh Bell .300 Mark Canha .000
Nelson Cruz .000 JD Davis .000
Alcides Escobar .444 Eduardo Escobar .000
Maikel Franco .400 Luis Guillorme .000
Yadiel Hernandez 1.000 Travis Jankowski .500
Cesar Hernandez .000 Francisco Lindor .000
Victor Robles .333 Starling Marte .000
Keibert Ruiz .333 James McCann .500
Juan Soto .400 Jeff McNeil .000
Dee Strange-Gordon .000 Tomas Nido .000
Lane Thomas .667 Brandon Nimmo .500
Dominic Smith .000

The Nationals have hit Walker hard. Josh Bell is 3-for-10 (.300) with a homer and three RBI. Lane Thomas is 2-for-3 (.667), including a solo homer. Alcides Escobar is 4-for-9 (.444) and Juan Soto is 2-for-5 (.400) with two RBI. Victor Robles (2-for-6) and Keibert Ruiz (1-for-3) are both batting .333.

For the Mets, Pete Alonso is 1-for-3 (.333) against Adon, that one hit being a grand slam. Travis Jankowski, Brandon Nimmo and James McCann are all 1-for-2 (.500).

Mets vs Nationals Picks & Prediction

The Mets are batting .257. That’s second-best in the majors and should enable them to feast against Adon. Alonso has clouted nine home runs and driven in 30 runs.

Washington can also hit the ball with authority. The Nationals are batting .259 with an OPS of .699. Soto has clouted eight homers. Walker is also struggling to find his groove.

A day game following a night game and also getaway day. This one has over play written all over it.

Pick: Over 9.0 (+105)

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