May 3rd 2022: El Madrigal, Villarreal, Spain: Champions League semi-final 2nd leg; Villarreal versus Liverpool FC: Fabinho of Liverpool celebrates scoring for 2-1 in the 62nd minute with teammates. (Photo by AgenciaLOF/Actionplus/Icon Sportswire) ****NO AGENTS—NORTH AND SOUTH AMERICA SALES ONLY****

  • Liverpool and Real Madrid have booked their spots in this year’s Champions League Final on May 28
  • The Reds have been installed as heavy -200 favorites to lift the trophy
  • See the opening Champions League Final odds and how each team reached this point below

Liverpool and Real Madrid are set to meet in the 2022 Champions League Final after each qualified from the semifinals this week. While the final is not set to kick off until May 28, the opening Champions League Final odds are out and favor Liverpool to win their seventh title.

Liverpool returns to the Champions League final after lifting the trophy in 2019 when they defeated Tottenham 2-0. They also played in the final the year prior, losing 3-1 to Real Madrid.

In total, Liverpool has won the title on six occasions, and has finished as runners-up three times.

Real Madrid last played for the title in 2018, defeating this same Liverpool side 3-1. It was their third straight UCL title, having also beaten Juventus 4-1 in 2017, and Atletico Madrid in penalties 2016. Additionally they beat Atleti again just two years prior in 2014. In total, Real Madrid is the winningest side of all-time with 13 titles and three runners-up finishes.

Liverpool vs Real Madrid Odds

Matchup Moneyline
Liverpool +100
Real Madrid +250
Draw +260

Odds as of May 4 at BetMGM

Liverpool opens as the early favorites to lift the trophy in the Champions League odds in France when the sides meet later this month. To win in regulation, they are even-money favorites at BetMGM. Madrid are fairly substantial underdogs at +250 to win within the 90. If you just want to make your Champions League picks for either team to win by any method (regulation, extra-time or penalties), Liverpool is -200 to “lift the trophy” while Madrid is +140.

Entering the semifinals, Liverpool had odds of +125, while Real Madrid were +550.

Champions League Over/Under

Oddsmakers are tipping it to be an exciting final with the Over 2.5 total goals juiced to -140. But if you favor a more cagey low-scoring affair, you can find odds of +100 on the Under.

Liverpool vs Villarreal Recap

Leg 1 at Anfield was a close match for the opening 45 minutes. The teams headed to the dressing rooms level at 0-0. However, in the second half, Liverpool’s class proved too much for Villarreal as an own goal at the 53′ minute mark, quickly followed by a Sadio Mane goal two minutes later, gave Liverpool the only goals they would need to win the match 2-0. In truth, the score was flattering to Villarreal. Liverpool held 73-percent of the possession. They also had the advantage in attempts (19-1) and shots on goals (10-2).

It didn’t take long for the Yellow Submarine to regain their footing in the tie come the second leg. Boulaye Dia scored just three minutes into the match on Tuesday to cut Villarreal’s deficit to one. In a half where Villarreal actually had more attempts (5-2) than Liverpool, they would score again minutes before halftime. A cross from Etienne Capoue, coupled with some poor defending by Trent Alexander-Arnold, allowed Francis Coquelin an open header to put Villarreal up 2-0 in the match and level 2-2 in the tie. Capoue proved to be the creator of the half with assists on both goals.

However, that’s where the good news ended for Villarreal. Much like in leg 1, Liverpool, came out with their hair on fire in the second half. Fabinho regained the lead for Liverpool in the 62′. Then, halftime substitute Luis Diaz added to the Liverpool tally five minutes later to draw level in the match 2-2 and ahead in the tie 4-2 on aggregate. Mane would put Liverpool ahead in the match for good with a goal in the 74′ basically into an empty net after Villarreal keeper Geronimo Rulli was caught out of his net trying to clear the ball.

Real Madrid vs Man City Recap

The second team to book their spot in the final comes from the semifinal between Real Madrid and Manchester City.

Leg 1 was a thrilling contest that saw City get their noses in front just two minutes into the match and double their lead eight minutes later. Madrid’s Karim Benzema pulled one back to make it 2-1, but City extended the lead to 3-1 early in the second half before Madrid cut the lead to one once again. Bernardo Silva’s 74′ minute goal gave Man City a 4-2 lead which would prove to be enough. Despite Benzema scoring his second of the match a penalty in the 82′.

Despite Real Madrid needing to score at least once to level the tie, leg 2 was rather uninspiring for the opening hour-plus. Not until the 73′ minute, and just after Ilkay Gundogan subbed on for Kevin de Bruyne, did one team finally find a breakthrough.

That came via a Riyad Mahrez strike, assisted from Bernardo Silva, which looked to have sealed Madrid’s fate.

But in the dying embers of the match, a cross into the box by Eduardo Camavinga to Benzema, which he passed to Rodrygo to bury into the back of the net brought the score level in the 90′ minute. However, that still left Madrid down one on aggregate. One minute later it was Rodrygo to the rescue again, heading home a pass into the box that was headed on from Marco Asencio to bring the sides level 5-5 over the two legs.

It was a managerial masterclass from Carlo Ancelotti, considering both Rodrygo, Asensio, and Camavinga had all been subbed on late in the match.

Just minutes into extra-time Ruben Dias committed a foul on Benzema, allowing the Frenchman to slot home a PK past Ederson to put Madrid into an unlikely lead, 6-5 on aggregate. That would prove to be enough to book Madrid’s ticket to the final.

Champions League Betting Trends

For Liverpool, their knockout stage results first included a 2-0 win and 1-0 loss versus Inter in the round of 16.

In the quarterfinals, they defeated Benfica 3-1 in leg 1 and drew 3-3 in leg 2. Then came 2-0 and 3-2 wins over Villarreal.

For those considering making early player props, Mohamed Salah has led Liverpool in UCL scoring with eight goals. Fabinho and Mane follow with five each.

Over on the Real Madrid side of things they lost 1-0 to PSG before winning 3-1 in leg 2 during the round of 16. Against Chelsea in the quarters they won 3-1 and lost 3-2.

Then they prevailed in the semis, losing 4-3 and winning 3-1 versus City.

If you’re betting a goalscoring prop for Madrid, you need look no further than Benzema. He’s scored 15 times to lead all UCL scorers this campaign. With his two goals on Wednesday, Rodrygo is next in line with five for Los Blancos.

Looking at all that, it’s hard to not imagine some goals coming when the final arrives.

Could the Champions League Odds Change?

Could the odds change? Absolutely. But a lot? Probably not. We’re down to the best two teams left standing in all of Europe. There’s little between them.

However, there is still over three weeks to go until they take to the pitch at the Stade de France in Saint-Denis.

Domestic competitions are winding down for both. If there’s an advantage to be had, you could argue that would be for Real Madrid. They have just four matches remaining in La Liga, and are a whopping 15 points clear of second-place Barcelona. Meaning they’ve already won the title. Ancelotti can take the opportunity to rotate his squad and rest some key starters.

Meanwhile, Liverpool is still neck-and-neck with Man City in the EPL odds for the title. They trail Man City by just one point, with four matches to go themselves. Now eliminated from the Champions League, Pep Guardiola will want to at least claim the EPL title to not waste this season after Champions League dissapointment. Liverpool will no doubt push City, but another potential UCL title could become more appealing.

Considering Liverpool, along with Man City, are generally considered the two overall best teams in Europe, Liverpool are rightly favored. Especially when you consider Madrid were moments away from going home and were outplayed by several teams throughout this competition. Both teams have hugely talented strikers and I’d think most bettors would take the side of Liverpool and goals come kick-off. Therefore, if you like Liverpool and the Over, now may be the time to make a bet. Madrid and or the Under? You may be able to bet a better price later this month in this rematch from 2018.

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