Luka Doncic defended by Chris Paul

May 10, 2022; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Phoenix Suns guard Chris Paul (3) guards Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) during the first half of game five of the second round for the 2022 NBA playoffs at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

  • The Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns will play Game 7 Sunday with a trip to the West Final on the line
  • Dallas hammered Phoenix at home in Game 6 to force the winner-take-all series finale
  • See the Mavericks vs Suns Game 7 opening odds, preview and prediction below

The Phoenix Suns were a cut above the rest of the league as they marched to the best regular season record.

Last year’s NBA finalist ensured the West road to the title series would run through the Valley of the Sun.

And thanks to Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks, they’re one loss away from all of it going up in smoke.

Dallas crushed Phoenix in 113-86 Game 6 W, setting up a winner-take-all Game 7.

The winner books a ticket to the Western Conference Final, to meet the survivor of the Warriors-Grizzlies series.

Mavericks vs Suns Game 7 Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Dallas Mavericks +195 +6.0 (-110) Ov 210.0 (-110)
Phoenix Suns -240 -6.0 (-110) Un 210.0 (-110)

Odds as of May 12th at DraftKings

The early line has the top-seeded Suns as the 6-point favorite on Sunday, May 15. Tip-off and where to watch are yet to be determined.

Mavericks vs Suns Betting Analysis

Dallas bounced back large from a horrendous third quarter in Game 5, where they were outscored 33-14 and turned the ball over 12 times as they were blown out 110-80.

They turned it around big time on Thursday night. Luka Doncic was the catalyst, as usual, putting up 33 points, 11 rebounds, eight assists and four steals. He turned the ball over once.

The rest of the roster, who’ve been so much better at home than on the road, were there to support their superstar. Jalen Brunson had 18 points on 6-for-12 shooting, while Reggie Bullock drilled 4-for-9 from downtown, adding 16 of his own.

Phoenix was out of sorts when the game was still up for grabs: they had 15 turnovers that led to 21 Dallas points through three quarters, while also getting outscored by 30 from the 3-point line, as they went just 4-for-12.

The only bright spot was Deandre Ayton rediscovering his game, as he put up 21 points and 11 boards. Devin Booker, meanwhile, shot a woeful 6-for-17 from the field, finishing with 19 points.

They’ll be happy to be out of Dallas: after averaging 120 points a game in three series wins at home, Phoenix cracked 100 points just once in three losses in Big D, averaging only 93.7 points.

Dallas vs Phoenix Prediction

The Suns had the best home record in the NBA this season at 32-9, and they’ve gone 5-1 at Footprint Center in the postseason.

Their fate will likely come down to which Chris Paul shows up in Game 7. After torching the Mavericks for 28 points in Game 2, he’s gone on to score 37 points over the next four games, a lowly 9.3 point-per-game clip.

CP3 has also committed 18 turnovers over that same span. He had only 13 points and five turnovers in Game 6, and Dallas made it a point to seek him out to switch on Doncic, who put him in the blender and punished him in the post.

We know home teams have a distinct advantage in these winner-take-all games. Of the 134 Game 7’s in NBA Playoff history, the road team has only been able to win 28, a 20.9% success rate.

Game 5 was a Dallas dud, and the reason the game ended under this total. Other than that, the other two contests in Phoenix were free-flowing with plenty of offense. Look for that trend to continue with both teams emptying the arsenal for this one.

The pick: OVER 210 points  (-110)

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