May 27, 2022; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers (11) helps up Baltimore Orioles shortstop Jorge Mateo (3) after hitting a double during the fourth inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
- The Boston Red Sox are -200 home favorites over the Baltimore Orioles in an American League afternoon game slated for Saturday, May 28
- This is the first game of a scheduled day-night doubleheader
- Analysis of the Orioles vs Red Sox odds, picks, predictions and best bets follow in the story below
Overall, the Baltimore Orioles (18-28, 6-17 away) have won four of their last five games against the Boston Red Sox (22-23, 11-10 home). More significantly, they’ve also finally won one in Boston.
The BoSox had taken six in a row from Baltimore on their home diamond prior to Friday’s 12-8 Orioles triumph. Boston blew an 8-2 lead in that game.
Saturday, as these two clubs continue a four-game weekend series with a day-night doubleheader, oddsmakers are expecting the Red Sox to return to their Fenway mastery of the Orioles. Boston is a -200 home favorite over Baltimore. The Red Sox are 6-1 against the runline over the past seven home games against the Orioles.
Orioles vs Red Sox Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | +175 | +1.5 (-115) | O 9.5 (-115) |
| Boston Red Sox | -200 | -1.5 (-105) | U 9,5 (-105) |
Odds as of May 28th at Caesars Sportsbook.
First pitch for the opener of this twin bill is set for 12:10 pm ET at Fenway Park on Saturday, May 28. The weather forecast is calling for light rain with breaks of sunshine, 14 mph wind and a temperature of 72 degrees.
At a favored moneyline of -200, Boston is given a 66.67% implied probability of victory.
Neither club is given much hope in the MLB Division odds. Boston is the +3000 fourth betting choice to win the AL East. Baltimore is at a betting line of +100000 and the fifth choice to win the AL East.
Eovaldi Finding His Groove?
Red Sox right-hander Nathan Eovaldi is a perplexing pitcher. He has served up more home runs (15) than any pitcher in the American League. Last year, he gave up 15 long balls all season long.
He’s in the bottom 3% of MLB pitchers in Max EV (116.3), the bottom 10% in xSLG (.546) and the bottom percentile in xwOBAcon (.465). At the same time, he’s among the top 8% in bases on balls percentage (4.0). Eovaldi shows a strikeouts to walks ratio of 6.63.
A new Career high for Nathan Eovaldi, 11 strike outs on the same game that he got his 1,000th strike out. pic.twitter.com/Wjb8hPUkEb
— Boston Strong (@BostonStrong_34) May 22, 2022
Eovaldi is 0-2 in his last seven starts. That includes a no-decision in a 2-1 Boston loss at Baltimore on April 30. In his previous start, Eovaldi turned in his best performance in May. He didn’t get the decision in an 8-4 win over Seattle. However, Eovaldi worked 6.2 innings, allowed just two earned runs and struck out a career-high 11 batters.
Eovaldi is 7-2 with a 3.43 ERA in 16 career starts against the Orioles.
Lyles vs Eovaldi
| 3-4 | Record | 1-2 |
| 4.10 | ERA | 4.10 |
| 4.35 | xERA | 5.10 |
| 1.35 | WHIP | 1.15 |
| 3.19 | SO/W Ratio | 4.56 |
While Eovaldi is king of the gopher ball, Baltimore right-hander Jordan Lyles gives them up across the board. He’s allowed an AL-high 55 hits this season in 52.2 innings of work. Last season, it was Lyles who led the AL in home runs surrendered, allowing 38 while pitching for the Texas Rangers. He also gave up an Al-leading 103 earned runs.
It’s been an up-and-down year for Lyles. He beat the Gerrit Cole and the New York Yankees in his last start but two starts earlier, lost to the Detroit Tigers. He’s 1-2 with a 4.19 ERA over his last three starts. He’s among the bottom 1% of MLB pitchers in max EV (118.8).
Jordan Lyles: “I’m here for a job. I’m here to do what I’m supposed to do. Let’s not get it … We know. That’s why I’m here. I’m here to help the team, these young guys not be overused.”
— Nathan Ruiz (@NathanSRuiz) May 24, 2022
Lyles did beat the Red Sox on May 1. He allowed one earned run over six innings in what would be a 9-5 Orioles triumph. He’s 2-1 with a 5.06 ERA in five career starts against Boston.
In one career start at Fenway Park, Lyles is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA. He allowed one earned run in seven innings on the bump.
Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers
| Red Sox Batters | Batting Average vs Lyles | Orioles Batters | Batting Average vs Eovaldi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Arroyo | .000 | Robinson Chirinos | .000 |
| Xander Bogaerts | .250 | Austin Hays | .368 |
| Jackie Bradley Jr | .000 | Trey Mancini | .143 |
| Franchy Cordero | .000 | Jorge Mateo | .000 |
| Bobby Dalbec | .000 | Ryan McKenna | .000 |
| Rafael Devers | .125 | Ryan Mountcastle | .417 |
| Enrique Hernandez | .000 | Rougned Odor | .118 |
| JD Martinez | .500 | Chris Owings | .250 |
| Kevin Plawecki | .000 | Adley Rutschman | .000 |
| Trevor Story | .167 | Anthony Santander | .200 |
| Alex Verdugo | .333 | Ramon Urias | .000 |
| Christian Vazquez | .500 | — | — |
Baltimore’s Ryan Mountcastle is 5-for-12 (.417) when facing Eovaldi. Austin Hays is 7-for-19 (.368) with two RBI. Cedric Mullins is 7-for-23 (.304) with two RBI.
Enrique Hernández going for a ride after taking Eduardo Rodriguez for a ride with his 1st home run of the season. He’s heating up…. pic.twitter.com/gLgbUdO7mD
— Jahmai Webster (@WebsterOnTV) April 13, 2022
Red Sox batter Enrique Hernandez is 2-for-5 (.400) with an RBI against Lyles. Christian Vazquez and JD Martinez are both 4-for-8 (.500). Trevor Story is only hitting .167 (3-for-18) off of Lyles but does have a home run and three RBI.
Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction
Both Eovaldi and Lyles are coming into this game off of sold outings. With Baltimore required to use seven pitchers on Friday, and with a twin bill on tap, Lyles will be expected to chew up a lot of innings. Good or bad, the Orioles may have to ride him for a while.
That certainly could play into the hands of the Red Sox, who will be looking to bounce back from Friday’s embarrassment.
Pick: Boston Red Sox ML (-200)
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.