Mike Clevinger delivers a pitch

Oct 6, 2020; Arlington, Texas, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Mike Clevinger (52) pitches against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the first inning in game one of the 2020 NLDS at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

  • The Padres vs Guardians odds favor San Diego as -135 moneyline favorites on Tuesday (May 3, 6:10 pm ET)
  • San Diego will send Mike Clevinger to the mound (0-0, 0.00 ERA), while Cleveland will counter with Zach Plesac (1-2, 3.80 ERA)
  • Read below for the Padres vs Guardians odds, analysis and betting prediction

Tuesday is a big day for Padres righty Mike Clevinger. Not only will he make his first MLB start since the 2020 postseason, but it will come against Cleveland, the team he spent virtually his entire career with.

Clevinger was with the Cleveland organization for his first 4.5 seasons in the bigs, before getting dealt to San Diego late in the 2020 season. He spent 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery, and after a minor hiccup with his knee in Spring Training he’s finally ready to take the mound.

Padres vs Guardians Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
San Diego Padres -135 -1.5 (+115) O 7.5 (-105)
Cleveland Guardians +115 +1.5 (-135) U 7.5 (-115)

Odds as of May 2nd at Caesars Sportsbook.

 

Clevinger’s Padres opened up as -135 moneyline favorites on the road, in a contest that features a total of 7.5 runs. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm ET at Progressive Field in Cleveland, OH, with showers and 60 degree temperatures in the forecast.

San Diego currently leads the NL West division at 15-8, while the Guardians sit second in the AL Central with a 10-12 record.

San Diego vs Cleveland Probable Pitchers

Clevinger has made three rehab starts leading up to Tuesday’s contest, most recently with Triple-A El Paso. His final minor league outing was a 67 pitch effort last week, and he told reporters afterwards he felt like he had full command of all his pitches.

Clevinger allowed a single run that start, scattering four hits and striking out five in 3.2 innings of work. A one-time sleeper candidate in the Cy Young odds prior to going under the knife, he owns a career 3.19 ERA and a tidy 1.19 WHIP.

As of Monday, there was no indication on whether or not he’d be on a pitch count, but it’s hard to imagine him going too deep in first MLB outing in a year and a half.

Clevinger (career) vs Plesac (2022) Stats

44-23 Record 1-2
3.19 ERA 3.80
1.19 WHIP 1.31
.220 OBA .282
2.9 SO/W Ratio 3.0

Cleveland will counter with right-hander Zach Plesac. The 27-year-old got off to a terrific start to the season posting three quality outings, but came crashing back down to earth last time out. Plesac coughed up seven hits and seven runs over 3.2 innings to the Angles, en route to a 9-5 defeat.

His 3.80 ERA and 1.31 WHIP look respectable on paper, but a deeper dive tells a different story. Plesac is on pace for the lowest K/9 rate of his career (5.06), while his velocity is down 1.8 miles per hour from 2021. Another sign for concern is the increase in hard contact enemy hitters are making. He’s issued a 36.5% hard hit rate this season, compared to only 33% in 2021. That’s resulted in an opponent batting average of .282.

Padres vs Guardians Betting Analysis

Plesac’s troubling underlying numbers are a recipe for disaster against the red-hot Padres. San Diego is a top-10 contender in the World Series odds, and ranks top-seven in runs, OBP and OPS+.

Manny Machado is tearing the cover off the ball, as evident by his .375 average and 1.031 OPS, while Eric Hosmer leads all of MLB in batting average at .382.

Not to be outdone, Cleveland has been exceeding expectations at the plate all year. Entering play on Tuesday, they rank inside the top-10 in runs, batting average, slugging percentage and OPS.

Jose Ramirez is one of the leading candidates in the AL MVP odds, batting .341 with seven home runs and a MLB-high 28 RBI. Three other Guardian regulars have an average north of .340, while the team has plated 19 runs in their last three games.

Padres vs Guardians Pick

However, as impressive as Cleveland’s offensive success has been it’s important to point out its struggles versus quality teams. The Guardians are 0-10 this season versus clubs who currently boast a record above .500, with a -37 run differential.

San Diego on the other hand, is a school yard bully. The Padres are 13-4 versus teams with a record below .500, compared to 2-4 against teams who are currently above .500.

Pick: San Diego Padres Moneyline (-135), Over 7.5 (-115)

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