San Diego Padres' Jurickson Profar celebrating a home run

San Diego Padres’ Jurickson Profar reacts after hitting a two-run home run during the fourth inning of a baseball game against the Cincinnati Reds, Wednesday, April 20, 2022, in San Diego. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull)

  • The San Diego Padres are -175 road favorites over the Cincinnati Reds as they open a three-game National League series on Tuesday, April 26
  • San Diego swept a three-game home series from Cincinnati April 18-20, outscoring the Reds 16-3
  • Below, see the Padres vs Reds odds and best bets

To suggest that the San Diego Padres (10-7) have the number of the Cincinnati Reds (3-13) would be to master understatement. Already this season, the Friars are 3-0 vs the Reds. San Diego outscored Cincinnati 16-3 in that three-game sweep April 18-20 at Petco Field. Overall, they’ve won 9 of 10 from Cinci.

In Cincinnati, though, things grow somewhat more balanced. The Reds beat the Padres in the most recent game played there. However, San Diego holds a 2-1 edge in the last three games there and has won five of the past nine games at Cincinnati.

As they open a three-game series in Cinci on Tuesday, it’s the Padres that oddsmakers are going with as the -175 road favorites. San Diego is just 4-3 straight up away from home so far this season.

Padres vs Reds Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
San Diego Padres -175 -1.5 (+105) O 8 (-110)
Cincinnati Reds +155 +1.5 (-125) U 8 (-110)

Odds as of April 25th at Caesars Sportsbook.

 

First pitch for Tuesday’s game at Great American Ball Park is set for 6:40pm ET. Clear skies, 11 mph wind and a temperature of 56 degrees is in the weather forecast.

The Padres are among the top-10 contenders in the World Series odds at +1500.  Cincinnati is currently on pace to go 31-131. While that finish seems unlikely, a play on the under with the Reds in the MLB win totals still might be a viable option. The 2022 win total for Cinci is set at 75.5.

Probable Pitchers

This pitching matchup has mismatch written all over it.  Going back to last season, Padres righthander Joe Musgrove is 8-2 over his past 10 decisions. He’s 4-2 in his last six road verdicts.

Steadiness is Musgrove’s best quality. He’s worked at least six innings in all three of his starts this season. Then again, maybe control is Musgrove’s forte. He’s struck out 21 batters in 19 innings while issuing a solitary walk.

In his most recent start, Musgrove worked 6.1 innings, allowing four hits and two earned runs. He got the win in a 6-2 decision over the Reds. He’s 5-2 with a 3.94 ERA in nine career appearances against Cincinnati. At Great American Ballpark, Musgrove is 2-1 with a 5.82 ERA.

Musgrove vs Sanmartin

2-0 Record 0-2
1.89 ERA 7.11
2.76 xERA 4.27
2.00 WHIP 1.57
1.60 SO/W Ratio 1.33

It’s early but so far, Reiver Sanmartin’s sophomore MLB season is taking on a feel of opposite day. He was 2-0 with a 1.54 ERA in two starts last season. This year, in three starts he’s 0-2 with a 7.11 ERA. When your ERA is the same as the place you stop in to get a post-game Slurpee, that’s not a good thing.

The Cinci lefty still qualifies as a rookie. His last two starts have at least seen him get to the fifth inning. He was chased in the third inning of his first start.

Sanmartin was on the wrong end of that 6-2 loss to the Padres. He gave up eight hits and five earned runs in 5.1 innings. Sanmartin is also the only Reds pitcher to bat this season. He was forced to hit April 19 after DH Aramis Garcia entered the game defensively to replace injured catcher Tyler Stephenson.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

Reds Batters Batting Average vs Musgrove Padres Batters Batting Average vs Sanmartin
Aristides Aquino .000 CJ Abrams .000
Brandon Drury .000 Jorge Alfaro .000
Kyle Farmer .125 Jose Azocar .500
Jake Fraley .000 Matt Beaty .000
Aramis Garcia .500 Luis Campusano .000
Mark Kolozsvary .000 Jake Cronenworth .000
Alejo Lopez .000 Trent Grisham .000
Colin Moran .000 Eric Hosmer .667
Tyler Naquin .000 Ha-Seong Kim .000
Tommy Pham .167 Manny Machado .667
JT Riddle .667 Wil Myers .500
Jonathan Villar .200 Austin Nola .333
Nick Senzel .500 Jurickson Profar .333
Joey Votto .381

Reds first baseman Joey Votto is 8-for-21 (3,81) with two homers and four RBI when stepping in to face Musgrove. Third baseman JT Riddle is 2-for-3 (.667). Centerfielder Nick Senzel and catcher Garcia are both 1-for-2 (.500).

For the Padres, third baseman Manny Machado is 2-for-3 (.667) with a two-run homer off of Sanmartin. First baseman Eric Hosmer is 2-for-3 with an RBI. Both right fielder Wil Myers and outfielder Jose Azocar are 1-for-2 with an RBI.

Padres vs Reds Prediction

The Reds aren’t as bad as their record but Musgrove is as good as the standard he’s setting.

Cincinnati will get better but not on this day.

Pick: San Diego Padres moneyline (-170)

Author Image

NFL
NBA
MLB
NHL
NCAAF
NCAAB
Tennis
Sports Writer

NFL
NBA
MLB
NHL
NCAAF
NCAAB
Tennis





Source link