J.T. Realmuto

Apr 30, 2022; New York City, New York, USA; Philadelphia Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto (10) is tagged out by New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor (12) on a double play hit into by left fielder Kyle Schwarber (not pictured) during the second inning at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

  • The New York Mets are -180 home favorites over their NL East rivals the Philadelphia Phillies in this week’s Sunday Night Baseball game on May 1
  • They’ve split the first two games of this three-game set, so this is the rubber match
  • Philadelphia is just 3-6 straight up on the road this season

As they face the New York Mets on Sunday Night Baseball, the Philadelphia Phillies will be attempting to accomplish two feats that eluded the club throughout the entire month of April.

Firstly, the Phils will be seeking to win back-to-back road games for the first time this season. They’ll also be looking to capture successive victories over their NL East rivals the Mets for the first time in six games. The Mets hold a 3-2 edge over Philadelphia in five meetings thus far.

Oddsmakers aren’t on board with the Phillies accomplishing either of these achievements. It’s the Mets who are set as the -180 chalk in Sunday’s game. New York’s NL club has won an MLB-best 14 games against the run line this season.

Phillies vs Mets Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Philadelphia Phillies +160 +1.5 (-145) O 7 (+100)
New York Mets -180 -1.5 (+125) U 7 (-120)

Odds as of May 1st at Caesars Sportsbook.
First pitch is set for 7:08pm ET at Citi Field. Cloudy skies, 11 mph wind and a temperature of 61 degrees are in the forecast. ESPN is carrying the broadcast.

The Mets are the -190 odds-on favorites to win the NL East title in the MLB Division odds. Bettors can access the Phillies as the +390 third betting choice.

Phillies righthander Zach Eflin has been a bit of a hard-luck story early in the 2022 season. Philadelphia batters plated just two runs through his first two starts.

However, the Phillies put a 10 spot on the board in Eflin’s last start on April 26 against the Colorado Rockies. He checked the Rockies on two hits and one earned run over six innings for the win. Eflin allowed a solo homer, the first long ball he’s surrendered this season.

Eflin is 3-4 with a 4.70 ERA in 13 appearances against the Mets. At Citi Field, he’s 0-2 with a 5.14 ERA in six career starts.

Eflin vs Scherzer

1-1 Record 3-0
3.20 ERA 1.80
2.49 xERA 2.01
1.12 WHIP 0.76
3.75 SO/W Ratio 4.13

The season couldn’t be going much better for veteran righthander Scherzer, in his first campaign with the Mets. Besides being 3-0 through four starts, he’s sporting an ERA below two (1.80) and a WHIP below one (0.76).

He’s been Mad Max when the Phillies are the opposition. Philadelphia and Miami have proven to be Scherzer’s favorite victims. He’s beaten each team 15 times. Against the Phils, Scherzer is 15-4 with a 2.47 ERA and 1.01 WHIP.

Scherzer is the +600 chalk in the NL Cy Young Awards odds. He’s won the honor three times – once in the AL and twice in the NL.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

Phillies Batters Batting Average vs Scherzer Mets Batters Batting Average vs Eflin
Alec Bohm .200 Pete Alonso .200
Johan Camargo .222 Mark Canha .000
Nick Castellanos .182 Robinson Cano .400
Didi Gregorius .100 JD Davis .000
Bryce Harper .214 Eduardo Escobar .333
Odubel Herrera .296 Luis Guillorme .200
Rhys Hoskins .043 Travis Jankowski .000
Roman Quinn .000 Francisco Lindor .000
JT Realmuto .113 Starling Marte .636
Kyle Schwarber .167 James McCann .333
Jean Segura .333 Jeff McNeil .273
Garrett Stubbs .000 Tomas Nido .250
Matt Vierling .000 Brandon Nimmo .091
Dominic Smith .333

Phillies centerfielder Odubel Herrera is 16-for-54 (.296) off of Scherzer. That includes two homers and five RBI. Second baseman Jean Segura is 9-for-27 (.333) with a solo homer. Catcher JT Realmuto has taken Scherzer deep twice but is batting just .113 against the Mets ace.

Mets rightfielder Starling Marte absolutely crushes it against Eflin. He’s 7-for-11 (.636) with a homer and four RBI. Second baseman Robinson Cano is 4-for-10 (.400) with a homer and two RBI. Catcher James McCann (2-for-6), first baseman Dominic Smith (5-for-15) and third baseman Eduardo Escobar (1-for-3) are all batting .333 when facing Eflin.

Mets vs Nationals Prediction

The Mets are 6-3 straight up at home and 6-3 SU when facing NL East opposition so far this season. They’ve won an MLB-leading 15 games and are looking to take their seventh straight series. They’re also 13-4 against righthanded starters.

The 11-11 Phillies are playing better of late. They’re 5-1 in the last six games. The Phils are 3-6 on the road and 3-6 vs the NL East. Philadelphia is 7-9 when facing a righty starter. But as noted above, they are 4-15 when that right-handed starter is Scherzer.

Pick: New York Mets ML (-180).

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