Poland vs Sweden

Poland’s Robert Lewandowski controls the ball during the World Cup 2022 group I qualifying soccer match between Poland and England, at the Narodowy stadium in Warsaw, Wednesday, Sept. 8, 2021. (AP Photo/Czarek Sokolowski, File)

  • It’s Poland vs Wales on Wednesday, June 1 in the opening tie of their 2022-23 UEFA Nations League group.
  • The Poles come into this game having lost just once in their last nine games.
  • We preview the game, look at Poland vs Wales odds, and offer some picks below.

It is Poland vs Wales in Wroclaw in the opening game of their 2022-23 UEFA Nations League campaign on Wednesday, June 1 at 12:00 midday ET.

The Poles have already secured their place in December’s World Cup in Qatar, but Wales still has work to do in the form of a final play-off game against either Scotland or Ukraine at the weekend.

We preview Poland vs Wales and offer below some analysis and picks for this  UEFA Nations League opener.

Poland vs Wales Odds

Matchup Moneyline
Poland -129
Wales +380
Draw +255

Odds as of May 31 at Barstool Sportsbook

The bookmakers predict Poland’s home advantage will tilt the balance in their favor and pitch them as odds-on at -129, which comes with a 56.33% implied win probability. Wales is considered a big outsider here at +380 with an implied win probability of  20.83%.

The draw also offers a decent return at +255, with an implied probability of 28.17%.

Over/Under and Spread

Barstool has pitched ‘over 2.5 goals’ pitched in plus money at a very decent +133, and under 2.5 at -159. If you envisage this one turning into an end-to-end goal-fest, then the +360 on offer for over 3.5 goals looks very tempting.

If you’re new to this sport and want to know how to bet on soccer then our page offers help on how to bet on this game and other Nations League games.

Poland vs Wales Prediction

In terms of World Cup qualification, it’s ‘job done’ for Poland who – unlike Wales – concluded their qualification campaign back in March. Thanks to goals from Robert Lewandowski and Piotr Zielinski, the Poles beat Sweden 2-0 in their playoff final and secured their place in Qatar.

In December, Czesław Michniewicz’s men will come up against Mexico, Saudi Arabia, and Argentina in their World Cup group – one they will consider it possible to progress from.

So, while the early stages of the new Nations League campaign will be far more low-key than what awaits in December, it offers a good chance to prepare and gain confidence in a competitive environment rather than friendlies.

One Defeat in Nine for the Poles

In the next couple of weeks, Poland will also take on Belgium (twice) and the Netherlands, in what is effectively the start of their Qatar preparations.

They will however also hope to improve on their third-place finish in League A Group 1 of the 2020-21 Nations League, finishing behind Italy and the Netherlands.

In the Poles’ favor ahead of this clash with Wales, is some very good form. They have only just once in their last nine and, of course, are led by arguably the best goalscorer in world soccer, Robert Lewandowski.

Poland vs Wales Head-to-Head Stats

2-1-3 (League A) Nations League record 2020-21 5-1-0 (League B)
6 / 6 Goals for / Goals against 7 / 1
3rd Finishing position 1st (promoted)
26 Current FIFA world ranking 18
W-W-W-L-D-W Form guide (all competitions) D-W-W-D-W-D

Tricky Balance for the Welsh

For Wales, this is a tricky one.  While they will naturally be keen to get their Nations League campaign off to a flying start, their World Cup qualifier on Sunday against either Scotland or Ukraine will weigh heavily on their minds.

No one will want to pick up a knock that will rule them out of Sunday, so for manager Rob Page his team selection and player management will be vital.

It’s a busy June for the Welsh with, in addition to this game and Sunday’s playoff, Nations League games coming up against the Netherlands (twice) and Belgium.

Emotional Scenes in Cardiff

In their last Nations League campaign, Wales finished atop League B Group 4, earning them promotion to Group A. In a group that also contained Finland, the Republic of Ireland and Bulgaria, they managed to collect 16 points thanks to a hugely impressive 5-1-0 record.

In order to qualify for this playoff final, the Welsh beat Austria 2-1 in March amid emotional scenes in Cardiff in their playoff semifinal, and last time out, five days after the Austria game, they earned themselves an equally impressive 1-1 draw in the Czech Republic – a result they would undoubtedly take in Wroclaw.

Poland vs Wales Team Lineups and Injuries

Poland Projected Lineup: Szczesny, Cash, Glik, Bednarek, Bereszynski, Bielik,  Zielinski, Goralski, Krychowiak, Szymanski, Lewandowski

Poland Injuries: None.

Wales Projected Lineup: Hennessy, Ampadu, Rodon, Davies, Roberts, Allen, Ramsey, Williams, Wilson, James, Bale.

Wales Injuries: None.

Poland vs Wales Pick

While the Poles will be going all out for the win, there will be a natural restraint around Wales’ approach to this game, with an even bigger test to come for them on Sunday.

Rob Page’s side has, however, become a very hard side to beat and they are more than capable of staying solid and compact and heading back to Wales with a point. On that basis, there is value in the +255 on offer for the draw.

Pick: Poland and Wales to draw (+255) / Robert Lewandowski first goalscorer (+245) 

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