Xander Bogaerts runs after hit; Boston Red Sox

Apr 27, 2022; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Boston Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts (2) reacts on his way to first base on a single against the Toronto Blue Jays during the sixth inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

  • The Red Sox vs Orioles odds favor Boston as -155 moneyline favorites on Sunday (May 1, 1:05 pm ET)
  • Boston will send Nick Pivetta to the mound (0-3, 8.27 ERA), while Baltimore will counter with Jordan Lyles (1-2, 5.40 ERA)
  • Read below for the Red Sox vs Orioles odds, analysis and betting prediction

AL East rivals clash again on Sunday, as the Red Sox and Orioles finish up their three-game set. The two teams have split the first two games, scoring a combined seven runs total, and for the third consecutive day it’s Boston that’s opened up as the favorite.

Red Sox vs Orioles Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Boston Red Sox -155 -1.5 (+125) O 8 (-110)
Baltimore Orioles +135 +1.5 (-145) U 8 (-110)

Odds as of April 30th at Caesars Sportsbook.

The Red Sox are currently -155 moneyline favorites, in a contest that features a total of 8 runs. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm ET at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, with clouds and 57 degree temperatures in the forecast.

Probable Pitchers

These two teams currently occupy the AL East’s last and second to last spot in the MLB divisional odds. A lousy start was expected for Baltimore, as it usually is, but Boston being multiple games below .500 after April is a surprise.

The Red Sox will send Nick Pivetta to the hill, who’s been a disappointment so far to say the least. Pivetta is off to a nightmare start, recording an 0-3 record with an 8.27 ERA. He hasn’t made it out of the 5th inning in three straight outings, and has allowed 11 runs, 15 hits and 10 walks over his past 10+ innings of work.

Pivetta posted a career-best season in 2021, but one of the teams that did hit him very hard was Baltimore. The lanky right-hander coughed up 13 runs, six homers and 11 walks to the Orioles, and this version of Baltimore’s roster has a combined lifetime .599 slugging percentage and .986 OPS against him.

Nick Pivetta vs Jordan Lyles

0-3 Record 1-2
8.27 ERA 5.40
1.96 WHIP 1.60
.297 OBA .309
1.2 SO/W Ratio 2.1

The Orioles, who project for the fewest victories in baseball in the MLB win totals, will give the ball to veteran Jordan Lyles. The 31-year-old has looked both excellent and atrocious in 2022, the ladder most recently.

Last time out he yielded six runs, including three homers, to the Yankees in just 4.2 innings. He’s surrendered 11 runs total in two of his four starts, but in the other two he’s held his opposition to just a single run.

Lyles was rocked in the majority of his outings last year with Texas, yielding a .278 opponent batting average while racking up 13 losses. He was hammered by Boston in both of his starts against them, allowing six runs and 11 hits in 11 innings of work.

Red Sox vs Orioles Betting Analysis

Both of these teams have been abysmal offensively this season, so it makes sense if your mind immediately wants to target the under in this contest.

Entering Saturday, the Orioles were averaging a league-low 3.0 runs per game, while the Red Sox weren’t much better at 3.57 runs per contest. Both clubs are hitting below .230 for the season, and each rank bottom-four in the AL in homers and OPS.

However, this Red Sox lineup is way too talented to continue to struggle. Trevor Story is going to break out of his slump any day now and justify the mega contract he signed in the offseason, while Xander Bogaerts can’t continue to hit near .400 for much longer and have only one homer and 8 RBI to show for it.

The Orioles on the other hand, couldn’t ask for a better matchup the way Pivetta is throwing the ball. I’m willing to bet they exceed their season averages on Sunday given how they’ve fared against him in the past.

Red Sox vs Orioles Last 10 Meetings

Date Away Team Home Team Score
4/30/22 Red Sox Orioles BAL, 2-1
4/29/22 Red Sox Orioles BOS, 3-1
9/30/21 Red Sox Orioles BAL, 6-2
9/29/21 Red Sox Orioles BOS, 6-0
9/28/21 Red Sox Orioles BAL, 4-2
9/19/21 Orioles Red Sox BOS, 8-6
9/18/21 Orioles Red Sox BOS, 9-3
9/17/21 Orioles Red Sox BOS, 7-1
8/15/21 Orioles Red Sox BOS, 6-2
8/14/21 Orioles Red Sox BOS, 16-2

Red Sox vs Orioles Pick

Before the start of this series both the Red Sox and Orioles had seen their share of high scoring games recently. Three of Boston’s past four games prior to this weekend produced at least 8 runs, while six of Baltimore’s past seven had done so as well.

With a pair of struggling pitchers on the mound, and at least one offense poised to turn things around, let’s target a high-scoring game in the series finale.

Pick: Over 8 (-110)

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