Nolan Arenado Paul Goldschmidt celebration

Apr 29, 2022; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt (46) celebrates with third baseman Nolan Arenado (28) after hitting a solo home run against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the first inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

  • The Royals vs Cardinals odds favor St. Louis as -160 moneyline favorites on Monday (May 2, 1:15 pm ET)
  • KC will send Zack Greinke to the mound (0-1, 2.86 ERA), while St. Louis will counter with Steven Matz (2-1, 6.11 ERA)
  • Read below for the Royals vs Cardinals odds, analysis and betting prediction

Missouri bragging rights will be on the line on Monday as the Royals and Cardinals begin a three-game interleague series in St. Louis.

Royals vs Cardinals Odds

Team Moneyline Runline Total
Kansas City Royals +140 +1.5 (-150) O 7 (-110)
St. Louis Cardinals -160 -1.5 (+130) U 7 (-110)

Odds as of May 1st at Caesars Sportsbook.


The Cardinals are currently -160 moneyline favorites in the opener, in a contest that features a total of 7 runs. First pitch is scheduled for 1:15pm ET at Busch Stadium, in St. Louis, MO, with rainy, 70 degree temperatures in the forecast.

At 7-13, Kansas City is off to yet another slow start and looks like a longshot to eclipse it’s projection in the MLB win totals, which was the fourth lowest in the AL.

St. Louis meanwhile, enters plays sitting comfortably in second place in the NL Central, but well behind of the leaders from Milwaukee.

Probable Pitchers

Steven Matz will take the ball for the Cardinals, looking to rebound from an ugly outing. The 30-year-old lasted just 4 innings against the Mets on Wednesday, giving up six hits and four runs. Fortunately for him, he was bailed out by his offense, something St. Louis pitchers haven’t been able to say a lot lately.

It marked the second poor outing for Matz in four starts, after giving up nine hits and seven runs against Pittsburgh in his season debut. In between those two outings he was fantastic, allowing just one run total in victories over Cincinnati and the Brewers, so it raises the question: which version of Matz will we see on Monday?

An encouraging sign for potential Cardinals backers is Matz’s history versus this KC roster. He’s surrendered just eight hits in 49 career at-bats versus active Royals, holding them to a paltry .187 slugging percentage and .333 OPS.

Greinke vs Matz Stats

0-1 Record 2-1
2.86 ERA 6.11
1.09 WHIP 1.70
.266 OBA .329
2.0 SO/W Ratio 4.6

Kansas City will counter with veteran Zack Greinke who’s taken the notion of pitching to contact to a whole new level this season. The 38-year-old has recorded only six strikeouts through 22 innings over four starts, and four of those K’s came in his last outing.

Greinke has just a 5% swinging strike rate so far this season, one of the lowest I’ve ever seen, but you can’t argue with his early results. Despite the low K total, he’s yielded only a 25% hard hit rate, while posting a 2.86 ERA and 1.09 WHIP.  He’s walked just three of the 82 batters he’s faced, with only one of those hitters taking him deep.

Thanks to his lengthy career he’s racked up an extensive history with the current Cardinal batters. St. Louis’ roster is batting just .193 versus Greinke over 225 at-bats, with only 22 extra-base hits.

Royals vs Cardinals Betting Analysis

Both the Royals and Cardinals entered play on Sunday batting below .237. Of course that’s no surprise given the makeup of KC’s roster, but St. Louis is just flat out underperforming this season.

The Cardinals feature three players on the NL MVP odds list, and a roster with Nolan Arenado, Tyler O’Neill and Paul Goldschmidt should not be averaging 0.76 home runs per game. St. Louis scored just nine runs against Arizona in a three-game set over the weekend, and rank below league average in slugging percentage and OPS. The Cards roster is way too talented to be held quiet for much longer, but a breakout doesn’t appear likely against the crafty Greinke.

The Royals on the other hand, have a price twice as long as anyone else in the AL Central to finish last in the MLB Divisional odds, and average fewer runs than every other AL team but Baltimore.

Royals vs Cardinals Last 10 Meetings

Date Away Team Home Team Score
4/12/22 Royals Cardinals STL, 6-5
8/15/21 Cardinals Royals STL, 7-2
8/14/21 Cardinals Royals STL, 9-4
8/13/21 Cardinals Royals STL, 6-0
9/23/20 Cardinals Royals KC, 12-3
9/22/20 Cardinals Royals STL, 5-0
9/21/20 Cardinals Royals KC, 4-1
8/26/20 Royals Cardinals STL, 6-5
8/25/20 Royals Cardinals KC, 5-4
8/24/20 Royals Cardinals STL, 9-3

Royals vs Cardinals Pick

Not surprisingly, 60% of Royals games this season have failed to eclipse the total, while three of Greinke’s four starts have produced six or fewer runs.

St. Louis’ underwhelming bats, along with their top-six ranked bullpen has kept the majority of their games low scoring as well. Eight of the Cards past 13 contests have come in under the total, and given this is a matchup Matz should fare well in, I like Monday’s outing versus KC to be low-scoring as well.

Pick: Under 7 (-110) 

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