Mar 29, 2022; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) hits a backhand against Carlos Alcaraz (ESP)(not pictured) in a men’s fourth round men’s singles match in the Miami Open at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

  • Stefanos Tsitsipas is the -150 favorite over Alexander Zverev in their ATP Italian Open semifinal on Saturday, May 14
  • It’s the third time this season that the two have played in the semifinals at a clay-court ATP Masters 1000 event
  • All the ATP Italian Open semifinal odds, predictions, picks and best bets for the Tsitsipas vs Zverev match is in the story below

If the ATP Italian Open semifinal scenario between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alexander Zverev is looking familiar, there’s a reason for that.

An ATP Masters 1000 event. A clay court surface. Tsitsipas on one side of the net. Zverev on the other.

Yeah, they’ve been there and done that this year. Again, again and again.

This will be their third meeting of 2022 in that scenario. They’ve split the previous two.

Oddsmakers are liking Tsitsipas to take the rubber match. He’s being set as the -150 favorite.

Tsitsipas vs Zverev ATP Italian Open Odds

Player Moneyline Spread Total
Stefanos Tsitsipas -150 -1.5 (-121) O 22.5 (-124)
Alexander Zverev +123 +1.5 (-106) U 22.5 (+103)

Odds as of May 13th at Barstool Sportsbook

The match is slated to get underway at 8:30 am ET on Saturday, May 14. To catch the action, tune in to the Tennis Channel.

In the opening ATP odds for this event, #4 seed Tsitsipas was also the fourth betting choice to win the ATP Italian Open at +500. However, #2 seed Zverev was rated with the sixth-best odds of winning the tournament at +600.

Tsitsipas Leaves ATP Italian Open Without Sinner

Facing a raucous crowd openly supporting their hometown hero, Tsitsipas happily filled the role of villain in his quarterfinal match against Jannik Sinner.  Tsitsipas defeated the 20-year-old Italian in straight sets, winning 7-6(7-5), 6-2. The match lasted two hours and 24 minutes.

The Greek stepped up in the first set to win the last two points when the tiebreaker was at 5-5. Tsitsipas increased the pressure on Sinner to start the second set and the toll it was taking on the Italian was evident. He began to wither under the Tsitsipas onslaught.

The world #4 finished with a 10-3 advantage in aces and a 50%-33% edge in second service games won over the 10th-seeded Sinner. Tsitsipas was 3/6 on break points, compared to 1/6 for Sinner. This is the second time that Tsitsipas has ventured into the ATP Italian Open semifinals. He also reached this vantage point in 2019.

It was the ATP Tour-leading 30th victory over the season for the Greek player. Tsitsipas survived two match points to beat Grigor Dimitrov 6-3, 5-7, 7-6(7-4) in the Round of 32. He downed Karen Khachanov 4-6, 6-0, 6-3 in the Round of 16.

Zverev Slays Cristian

In similar fashion to the Tsitsipas victory, Zverev was required to quell the pesky Cristian Garin in the first set of their quarterfinal before quashing him in the second set. Zverev won the match in one hour and 51 minutes by a 7-5, 6-2 straight set score.

The German struck 24 winners during the match and broke the Chilean’s serve four times. Zverev fashioned a 4-1 edge in aces and won a whopping 56% of second-service points, compared to just 28% for Garin. Garin could only manage to win one break point.

Zverev is on a roll, with wins in seven of his last eight matches. He’s yet to drop a set in the ATP Italian Open.

It’s the third time in a row at an ATP Masters 1000 clay court event that Zverev has battled his way into the final four. Zverev is a past ATP Italian Open champion. He defeated Novak Djokovic to win the title in 2017.

Tsitsipas vs Zverev Odds & Prediction

World #5 Tsitsipas downed Zverev 6-4, 6-2 in the semifinals at Monte Carlo en route to this title win there. Zverev was a 6-4, 3-6, 6-2 winner over Tsitsipas in the semis last week at Madrid.

Overall, Tsitsipas owns a 7-4 edge in head-to-head meetings with Zverev. That’s including a 3-1 advantage on clay surfaces.

Tsitsipas vs Zverev Stats

5 ATP Ranking 3
8 ATP Titles 19
19 ATP Final Appearances 30
30-9 W-L (2021) 24-8
86% Service Games Won 84%
24% Return Games Won 26%
65% Break Points Saved 62%
257 Aces 190

Tsitsipas is an impressive 13-2 on clay courts in 2022, for an .867 winning percentage. Currently #3 in the ATP Tour rankings, Zverev is showing a 24-8 record this season, with a 12-3 mark on clay courts.

In Rome, it’s Zverev who’s looked to be a touch sharper than Tsitsipas. He’s required just 64 games to get to the semis. Tsitsipas has played 80. In terms of court time, the Greek has worked 6:55, while Zverev has limited his time served to 5:09.

Pick: Alexander Zverev +123; Zverev 2-1 (+390)

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