Mavs celebrate

May 8, 2022; Dallas, Texas, USA; Dallas Mavericks forward Sterling Brown (0) and forward Dorian Finney-Smith (10) and guard Jalen Brunson (13) celebrates Finney-Smith making a three point shot against the Phoenix Suns during the fourth quarter during game four of the second round for the 2022 NBA playoffs at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

  • The Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks are tied at 2-2 heading into Game 5
  • Phoenix is favored by six points despite losing the last two
  • Read below for the latest Suns vs Mavericks Game 5 odds and our pick

The Phoenix Suns are six-point favorites for Tuesday’s matchup with the Dallas Mavericks. With the series heading back to Arizona, it’s tied up at two wins apiece following Dallas’ pair of victories in Texas. While still favored to win Game 5 and to win the series, the Suns are under a surprising amount of pressure after looking so dominant in the first two games.

Phoenix has outscored Dallas by eight points through the first four games of the series, and has grabbed 40 more rebounds. Dallas, meanwhile, have looked after the ball more effectively, clocking just 41 turnovers to the Suns’ 59.

Suns vs Mavericks Game 5 Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total Points
Dallas Mavericks +6 (-110) +210 Over 213.5 (-110)
Phoenix Suns -6 (-110) -255 Under 213.5 (-110)

Odds as of May 9th at FanDuel Sportsbook

Despite dropping both games in Dallas, the market is still bullish on the Suns – as their NBA Championship odds remain as short as +275.

Mavericks Hit Shots at Home

Dallas hit 20 threes in Game 4, including eight from Dorian Finney-Smith. Having been cold from downtown in the first two games of the series, the Mavericks were more efficient on their homecourt. Shot Quality data showed that Dallas was due to shoot the ball better, and that’s exactly what Jason Kidd saw in Games 3 and 4.

Phoenix, in contrast, massively exceeded its expected scoring in the first two games of the series. Even by the high mid-range standards of the Suns, it was an unsustainable level, with them draining well over 60% of their long twos. They made just nine threes in Game 4, and the offense was ineffective in Game 3 with a Shot Quality Score under 100.

It’s long been an assumption in the playoffs that home teams will shoot the ball better than they do on the road. That has been the case in this series to date, but Dallas has also tweaked its offense to create better looks since leaning so heavily on Luka Doncic through the first two games. The play of Jalen Brunson is a major factor in Game 5.

Suns Under Pressure

Of course, Chris Paul’s foul trouble played a part in Game 4. The Point God was held to under 24 minutes as a result and ultimately fouled out. The fact that Phoenix was still in the game in the fourth with Paul’s role so diminished could be seen as a positive, particularly with Mikal Bridges also going just three-for-nine from the field.

The Suns return home having won emphatically in Games 1 and 2. Devin Booker is coming off 35 and seven in Game 4, and they continue to get great play at the five from a combination of Deandre Ayton, JaVale McGee and Bismack Biyombo. This is a team suddenly under pretty significant pressure, however, and they know a loss on Tuesday could be their final home game of the season.

Monty Williams will be hoping his team can cut down the giveaways after putting up 17 turnovers in each of the last two. Losing to Dallas when Doncic has 26 on 25 shots is a worry, but Phoenix can also assume that Davis Bertans and Finney-Smith will be far less effective from deep than they were on Sunday.

Mavericks Stay Close

These teams are closer than the first two games showed. Phoenix is obviously a greater two-way force than the Mavericks, but Dallas has found a good formula over its two home games. Doncic has played harder on the defensive end, and they can go toe-to-toe with the Suns if Brunson is as productive as he was in the last two (46 points and nine assists over 73 minutes).

Dallas is a real tempter on the moneyline at that price, particularly with the strong Shot Quality data throughout this series. It remains so hard to bet against Phoenix on their homecourt, but six points feels generous given the trajectory of this series.

We like the value on Dallas to cover in Game 5 – it should be a classic.

  • Pick: Mavericks +6 (-110)
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