Devin Booker celebration

May 10, 2022; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker (1) reacts after a three point basket against Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) during the second half of game five of the second round for the 2022 NBA playoffs at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

  • The Suns vs Mavericks Game 6 odds favor Phoenix by 2-points on Thursday, May 12 at 9:30pm ET
  • Phoenix leads the best-of-7 series 3-2, and is a -700 favorite to advance to the conference final
  • Read below for the Suns vs Mavericks Game 6 odds, analysis, and betting prediction

It appears the Suns are done messing around. After allowing the Mavericks to even their Second Round series with disappointing efforts in Games 3 and 4, Phoenix looked a lot like its former self in Game 5.

The Suns pounded Dallas 110-80 to take a 3-2 series lead, and can advance to their second straight Western Conference Final with a road win on Thursday in Game 6.

Suns vs Mavericks Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Phoenix Suns -130 -2 (-110) O 212.5 (-110)
Dallas Mavericks +110 +2 (-110) U 212.5 (-110)

Odds as of May 11th from FanDuel Sportsbook.

The Suns are 2-point favorites, in a contest that features a total of 212.5. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:30pm ET at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

As for the series market, Phoenix has a -700 price tag to advance to the next round. They’re currently the second shortest priced team in the NBA Championship odds, checking in at +240 to raise the Larry O’Brien trophy.

Suns vs Mavericks Betting Analysis

After a hard fought first half in Game 5, Phoenix blew the doors open in the third quarter. The Suns outscored the Mavericks 33-14, holding Dallas to just four points in the first six minutes, while forcing 12 turnovers in the frame.

Devin Booker scored 12 of his 28 points in the third, becoming just the 18th player in NBA history reach 800 points in the playoffs in his first 30 postseason games.

Deandre Ayton added 20 points for the game, while Mikal Bridges splashed 14 points and Chris Paul dished out 10 assists.

Luka Doncic led the Mavericks with 28 points, but the entire team struggled with efficiency, thanks to the suffocating Phoenix defense. Dallas shot just 38% from the field, while managing only 24 points in the paint.

In addition to dominating down low, the Suns held a major statistical advantage in nearly every key category. They shot 49% from the field, while committing six fewer turnovers, and recording 12 more rebounds and 19 more assists.

The complete effort was a reminiscent of the way Phoenix played during the regular season, where they won an NBA-best 64 games. They improved to 6-2 against the Mavericks this season, with all but three of those games falling short of 213 points.

Suns vs Mavericks Pick

Which brings us to our Game 6 wager. Betting unders in Dallas home games has been ridiculously profitable this season and there’s plenty of reasons to believe that trend will continue.

33 of the Mavericks 46 home contests this season have failed to clear the total. That’s a 72% hit rate for those keeping track at home. Both Games 3 and 4 fell short of the number, producing an average of only 204.5 points.

Phoenix averages eight fewer points per 100 possessions in the playoffs on the road vs at home, while their pace decreases by an average of three possessions per contest.

No team played slower than Dallas this year, and believe it or not, they’re actually averaging five fewer possessions at home during the postseason than they did during the regular season.

But pace is just one of the reasons to like the under on Thursday. Also working in favor of a low scoring game is the Mavericks’ inefficiency on offense and the Suns’ exceptional defense.

Dallas owns the third-worst offensive rating of the eight remaining teams in the playoffs. They’re averaging only 104 points per outing and have failed to clear 99 points in four of 11 postseason games.

Phoenix, on the other hand, ranked third in defensive rating during the regular season and proved in Game 5 how stingy they can be at that end on the court when properly motivated.

Pick: Under 212.5 (-110)

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