May 12, 2022; Dallas, Texas, USA; The Dallas Mavericks bench celebrates during the fourth quarter against the Phoenix Suns during game six of the second round of the 2022 NBA playoffs at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
- The Suns are 6.5-point home favorites over the Mavericks on Sunday in Game 7 of their Western Conference semifinal series
- All six games in the series have been decided by at least seven points
- A look at matchup and odds can be found below with a pick
A trip to the Western Conference finals is on the line when the Phoenix Suns host the Dallas Mavericks at 8 p.m. ET Sunday in Game 7 of their semifinal series at the Footprint Center.
The Mavericks (59-35/25-22 road) rolled to a 113-86 victory in Game 6 on Thursday night in Dallas and are 14-6 in their last 20 games, including the regular season. The Suns (71-23/37-10 home) had the best record in the NBA during the regular season but are 9-9 in their last 18 games.
Mavericks vs Suns Odds
|Dallas Mavericks||+225||+6.5 (-110)||Over 205 (-110)|
|Phoenix Suns||-275||-6.5 (-110)||Under 205 (-110)|
Odds as of May 14th at FanDuel Sportsbook.
The Suns are 6.5-point favorites in a game that will be televised by TNT. Phoenix has an implied win probability of 73.33% as -275 choices on the moneyline.
Mavericks Betting Outlook
Luka Doncic is averaging 32.2 points a game in the series but is shooting just 16 of 54 (29.6%) from three-point range. He was 2 for 8 from beyond the arc in Game 6 and is 7 for 33 (21.2%) in his last four games.
Despite the shooting woes, Doncic put up stellar numbers in Game 6 with 33 points, 11 rebounds, eight assists and four steals. That continued his strong play in elimination games.
Elimination games bring out the best in Luka Doncic. He’s averaging 39 points, 9 rebounds, and 10.3 assists on 51% shooting in 3 elimination games 🔥
38 PTS – 9 REBS – 9 ASTS – 54% FG
46 PTS – 7 REBS – 14 ASTS – 57% FG
33 PTS – 11 REBS – 8 ASTS – 42% FG pic.twitter.com/V55vesnDlW
— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPointsApp) May 13, 2022
Doncic has been playing with a strained left thigh. However, it hasn’t appeared to much of a factor and he should certainly be ready to log major minutes in Game 7.
Reggie Bullock had 19 points and was 5 of 11 on threes Thursday. That came after he failed to score in Game 5 while being limited to five shots.
Jalen Brunson added 18 points and Justin Dinwiddie finished with 15 points on 5-of-7 shooting from distance.
Bullock and Dinwiddie helped the Mavericks shoot 41.0% (16 of 39) from beyond the arc. The Mavericks also played a clean floor game with just six turnovers.
NBA Leaders in 3-Point % in the 2022 Playoffs:
1. Maxi Kleber – 49%
2. Dorian Finney-Smith – 43%
3. Tyrese Maxey – 41%
4. Reggie Bullock – 40%
(min 10 games & 40 att.)#MFFL pic.twitter.com/8bbLXW8cr2
— MavsMuse (@MavsMuse) May 9, 2022
The Mavericks used a 19-5 run to end the first half, extending a 41-40 lead to 60-45, and were never seriously threatened in the final two quarters.
Suns Betting Outlook
The Suns had perhaps their worst performance of the season in Game 6. They had a season low in point and a season-high 22 turnovers, including eight by Devin Booker.
DeAndre Ayton had a double-double with 21 points and 11 rebounds while continuing to play strong defense. He was about the only bright spot for the Suns, though.
Luka Doncic when guarded by Deandre Ayton in this series:
12-31 (38.7%) FG, 3-13 (23.1%) 3PT, 3 TOV.
That is no mismatch. pic.twitter.com/aEoK6ATOxs
— Suns Are Better (@SunsAreBetter) May 11, 2022
Booker finished with 19 points and eight rebounds. However, he also shot 6 of 17 from the field and missed all four three-point attempts in addition to the turnovers.
As a team, the Suns shot 39.7% (31 of 78).
Chris Paul had 13 points and just four assists. Paul is averaging 6.5 dimes in this series compared to 10.8 in the regular season.
This will be the eighth Game 7 of Paul’s career. The 17-year veteran has made more headlines for defending family from Dallas fans in this series than his play on the floor.
If he old enough to push Chris Paul’s mom, he old enough to catch those hands too🤷🏽♂️ https://t.co/aMLI13rwQE
— Jonathan (@jonnyv132) May 9, 2022
One change coach Monty Williams made to the rotation Thursday was using Bismack Biyombo as the backup center to Ayton rather than JaVale McGee. Biyombo made a minimal contribution with four points and three rebounds in 14 minutes.
Mavericks vs Suns Prediction
The Suns had won 11 straight games against the Mavericks until Dallas won Game 3. So, the Mavericks now have belief they can beat Phoenix.
However, winning in Phoenix is another matter as the home team has taken all six games in this season. Three games have been decided by 20 points and none by less than seven points.
Game 7 is a different animal, though. In a series of extremes, the law of average says it’s time for a close finish.
Pick: Mavericks +6.5 (-110)
John Perrotto has been covering and writing about sports for various outlets for over 40 years. His work has appeared in the likes of USA TODAY, ESPN.com, SI.com, Forbes.com, The Associated Press, Baseball Digest, and more. John is based out of Beaver Falls, PA.