May 30, 2022; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Minnesota Twins catcher Gary Sanchez (24) tags out Detroit Tigers second baseman Jonathan Schoop (7) in the seventh inning at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
- The Minnesota Twins are -145 road favorites over the Detroit Tigers in the opener of a twinbill set for Tuesday, May 31
- Home teams have won six of seven meetings between these two ballclubs so far this season
- All of the Twins vs Tigers odds, picks, predictions and best bets are assessed in the story below
The Detroit Tigers kept the home hoodoo in order as they opened a five-game series with the Minnesota Twins on Monday. Detroit’s 7-5 victory marked the sixth victory for the home team in seven games played this season between the two clubs.
Unfortunately for Detroit, the first six of those seven games were all played in Minnesota. Tuesday, the Tigers and Twins are contesting a day-night doubleheader and oddsmakers are going against the form charts in the opener of this twinbill.
Minnesota is set as a -145 road favorite. The Twins are 4-3 on the runline against the Tigers this season.
Twins vs Tigers Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | -145 | -1.5 (+100) | O 8.5 (-110) |
| Detroit Tigers | +125 | +1.5 (-125) | U 8.5 (-110) |
Odds as of May 30th at Caesars Sportsbook.
First pitch for this doubleheader opener on Tuesday, May 31, is set for 1:10 pm ET at Comerica Park. Cloudy skies, 13 mph wind and a temperature of 87 degrees are in the forecast.
Given the favored moneyline odds of -145, the Twins are being assigned an implied probability of victory of 59.18%. Bet $10 on them to win and a successful wager returns a payout of $16.90.
In the MLB betting trends, the public is also leaning toward the Twins. Minnesota is garnering 55% of the bets placed against the spread. As well, the moneyline splits are showing 55% of the bets are on the Twins at -154 odds. There’s also 55% of the public bets on the Under (9).
The Twins are the +115 second betting choice in the AL Central odds. Detroit is being given +8000 odds to win the division.
Smeltzer Unbeaten Since 2019
Twins lefty Devin Smeltzer is 1-0 in three starts this year and his lone win came on the road. He got the victory in a 6-4 verdict at Kansas City on May 20.
Smeltzer has worked at least five innings in each of his three starts and has never allowed more than one earned run in any appearance. In fact, he’s 3-0 since the start of the 2020 season. Smeltzer hasn’t tasted defeat in a big-league game since losing to Cleveland on Aug. 9, 2019.
Devin Smeltzer after throwing seven shutout innings:
“My wife told me this morning I needed to throw more changeups down and away. I agreed and that’s what we did.”
Smeltzer threw 26 changeups out of 80 total pitches, nearly doubling his previous usage rate this season.
— Aaron Gleeman (@AaronGleeman) May 27, 2022
He’s situated in the top 3% of MLB pitchers in xERA (2.12), wOBA (.207), xwOBA (.247) and xwOBAcon (.251). Smeltzer is among the top 5% in xSLG (.306). However, the southpaw is among the bottom 5% in strikeout percentage (12.9), so you know when Smeltzer’s on the hill, the opposition is putting the ball in play.
Against the Tigers Smeltzer is 1-0 but with a 7.11 ERA. He got the win in a 10-4 Minnesota triumph on Sept. 22, 2019 at Comerica Park.
Smeltzer vs Garcia
| 1-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| 1.04 | ERA | 3.00 |
| 2.15 | xERA | 3.95 |
| 0.80 | WHIP | 0.83 |
| 2.00 | SO/W Ratio | 4.40 |
Unlike Smeltzer, Tigers right-hander Rony Garcia has never tasted defeat in the major leagues. He’s 1-0 through 26 career appearances. Tuesday will be just his fourth big-league starting assignment.
Devin Smeltzer gets the nod on Tuesday in game 1 of the doubleheader. #MNTwins pic.twitter.com/FrHQaKFhF6
— Bally Sports North (@BallySportsNOR) May 30, 2022
With 22 strikeouts against only five bases on balls, Garcia is showing a stellar 4.40 strikeouts/walks ratio. He rates among the top 8% of big-league hurlers in strikeout percentage (32.4). However, Garcia sits among the bottom 2% in hard-hit percentage (53.7) and in the bottom percentile in xwOBAcon (.499).
Garcia has faced the Twins four times, including one start. He’s never factored in the decision but shows an 8.10 ERA.
Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers
| Tigers Batters | Batting Average vs Smeltzer | Twins Batters | Batting Average vs Garcia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tucker Barnhart | .000 | Luis Arraez | .333 |
| Javier Baez | .000 | Byron Buxton | .333 |
| Miguel Cabrera | .500 | Carlos Correa | .500 |
| Daz Cameron | .000 | Kyle Garlick | .000 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 1.000 | Nick Gordon | .000 |
| Harold Castro | .000 | Ryan Jeffers | .000 |
| Willi Castro | .333 | Max Kepler | .000 |
| Kody Clemens | .000 | Tommy La Stella | .333 |
| Eric Haase | .000 | Trevor Larnach | .500 |
| Derek Hill | .000 | Jose Miranda | .000 |
| Jonathan Schoop | 1.000 | Jorge Polanco | .000 |
| Spencer Torkelson | .000 | Gary Sanchez | .000 |
| — | — | Gio Urshela | .500 |
Tigers slugger Miguel Cabrera is 2-for-4 (.500) with two RBI facing Smeltzer. Willi Castro is 1-for-3 (.333) with an RBI. Both Jeimer Candelario and Jonathan Schoop are 1-for-1 (1.000). Schoop has driven in a run.
MIGUEL CABRERA WALKS IT OFF FOR THE TIGERS
— Ben Verlander (@BenVerlander) May 27, 2022
Minnesota’s Trevor Larnach is 1-for-2 (.500) with a homer and two RBI against Garcia. Byron Buxton is 1-for-3 (.333) and that hit is a solo homer. Carlos Correa and Gio Urshela are each 1-for-2 (.500). Luis Arraez is 1-for-3 (.333) and has an RBI.
Twins vs Tigers Prediction
Five of Detroit’s nine regulars are batting below .200. That doesn’t lean toward continued success. So even though the Tigers have won two in a row and four of five. it’s difficult to side with them keeping it rolling.
Smeltzer has been lights out in all three starts since he was called up earlier this month. He’s coming off working seven shutout innings against the Royals.
Pick: Minnesota Twins ML (-145)
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.