Sadio Mane

Liverpool’s Sadio Mane, right, celebrates after scoring his side’s third goal during the English FA Cup semifinal soccer match between Manchester City and Liverpool at Wembley stadium in London, Saturday, April 16, 2022. (AP Photo/Kirsty Wigglesworth)

  • It’s Villarreal vs Liverpool in second leg of the Champions League semifinal on Tuesday, May 3 at 3:00 pm ET
  • Liverpool has one foot in the UCL final after winning the first leg 2-0 at Anfield
  • We preview the game, look at the Villarreal vs Liverpool odds, and offer some picks below

It is Villarreal vs Liverpool in the La Ceramica on Tuesday, May 3 at 3:00 pm ET in the second leg of their UEFA Champion League semi-final. Liverpool already has one foot in the final after winning 2-0 at Anfield last Wednesday, but Villarreal manager Unai Emery is a master at preparing his teams for European occasions like this one.

We preview Villarreal vs Liverpool and offer below the best picks for this huge UCL clash.

Villarreal vs Liverpool Odds

Matchup Moneyline
Villarreal +390
Liverpool -152
Draw +325

Odds as of May 2 at Barstool Sportsbook

The bookies have Liverpool listed as big, odds-on favorites in the Champions League odds at -152, which comes with a 58% implied probability of a win, compared to Villarreal’s +390 with an implied probability of 19%. Given how favored Liverpool is, the draw at +325 – implied probability of 23% – potentially offers value as this will be a very different type of game to the first leg.

Over/Under and Spread

The standard ‘over 2.5 goals’ bet at -148 offers little value but ‘over 3.5 goals’ is far more attractive at +175 – a reasonable wager given that the Reds have looked full of goals in the last month.

If you’re new to this sport and want to know how to bet on soccer then our page offers help on how to bet on this game and others like it.

Villarreal vs Liverpool Prediction

To emerge from Anfield with only a two-goal deficit was a result in itself for Villarreal. On a night when they were under pressure from minute one through to 93, to have conceded only twice was an outstanding defensive effort from the Yellow Submarine.  In fact, but for a mad three-minute spell when the Reds finally found a way they could have emerged with an unlikely draw.

Villarreal managed to get to 52 minutes without having their defenses breached but on 53, a cross from Jordan Henderson was deflected past keeper Geronimo Rulli and into his own net by Pervis Estupinan. When 1-0 became 2-0 just two minutes later – Sadio Mane the scorer – it felt like the floodgates could open and Liverpool would go on to clinch the tie, but somehow the Yellow Submarine held firm.

Outstanding Form at La Ceramica for Villarreal

It still remains a massive task for the Spanish side though and only once has a team come back from a two-goal deficit in the second leg of a Champions League semifinal. Ironically, that team was Liverpool in 2018-19, when on an extraordinary night at Anfield they overturned Barcelona’s three-goal lead.

In Villarreals’ favor, however, is some outstanding form at La Ceramica where they are on an unbeaten run of 12 games.  Not since November has the Yellow Submarine experienced defeat in front of their own fans.

Villarreal vs Liverpool Head-to-Head Stats

5-5-3 UCL record in 2021-22 9-1-1
18 / 13 Goals for / Goals against 27 / 11
46.37% Possession 60.73%
81.64% Passing accuracy 86.91%
3 Clean sheets 4
D-D-W-W-L-L Form guide (all competitions) D-W-W-W-W-W

Quadruple Dream Still Alive for Reds

Liverpool’s quadruple dream is still alive and with every win edges ever closer. The Premier League title remains out of their control as things stand, with Man City leading them by a single point, but with the EPL Cup already in the bag, an upcoming FA Cup final against Chelsea and a 2-0 lead from the first leg here, the miracle is still on.

If Liverpool can see the job through, it will be their 10th appearance in the final of Europe’s most prestigious competition, with Real Madrid, Bayern Munich and AC Milan the only other teams to have achieved double-figure appearances. And the Reds’ form could hardly be better, with a weekend win at St James’ Park over a rejuvenated Newcastle United being achieved with the minimum of fuss.

Six Wins on the Spin for Liverpool?

The win on Tyneside was Liverpool’s fifth straight win and you have to go back to December 28 to find their last defeat – a 1-0 reverse at Leicester. The Reds have also won all five of their away games in this season’s Champions League  – an outstanding achievement in itself.

The last time Liverpool played at La Ceramica – in the 2015-16 Europa League – they lost 1-0, but this is a very different Liverpool team; one that has the smell of glory in their nostrils. They’ll fancy getting the job done here with room to spare.

Villarreal vs Liverpool Team Lineups and Injuries

Villarreal Projected Lineup: Rulli, Foyth, Albiol, Torres, Estupinan, Capoue, Coquelin, Parejo, Lo Celso, Chukwueze, Dia.

Villarreal Injuries: Moreno, Pino, Danjuma.

Liverpool Projected Lineup: Alisson, Alexander-Arnold, Matip, Van Dijk, Robertson, Henderson, Fabinho, Thiago, Salah, Mane, Jota.

Liverpool Injuries: Firmino.

Villarreal vs Liverpool Pick

The Ceramica is a daunting venue for most visitors, but Liverpool aren’t most visitors. This Reds team has been talked about as one their greatest of all time and it’s very hard to make a case for a home win, even allowing for the Emery factor.

Everything points to this being a comfortable win for Klopp’s men.

Pick: Liverpool to win  3-1 (+1100) / Over 3.5 goals (+185)

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