Steph Curry defended by Nikola Jokic

Apr 21, 2022; Denver, Colorado, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) and Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) battle for a loose ball in the fourth quarter during game three of the first round of the 2022 NBA playoffs at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

  • The Warriors vs Nuggets Game 5 odds favor Golden State by nine points on Wednesday, April 27 at 10pm ET
  • Golden State leads the best-of-7 series 3-1
  • Read below for the Warriors vs Nuggets odds, analysis, and betting prediction

The Nuggets may have staved off elimination in Game 4, but even Colorado online sportsbooks aren’t expecting them to make history. No NBA team has ever erased a 3-0 series deficit and Denver is an overwhelming underdog to accomplish the feat.

The Nuggets are +2200 to advance to the Second Round, while the Warriors, who lead Denver 3-1 and will host Game 5 on Wednesday, are -8000 favorites to move on to the conference semis.

Nuggets vs Warriors Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Denver Nuggets +320 +9 (-110) O 226 (-110)
Golden State Warriors -425 -9 (-110) U 226 (-110)

Odds as of April 26th from FanDuel Sportsbook

Golden State opened up as a 9-point favorite in Game 5, in a contest that features a total of 226. Tipoff is scheduled for 10pm ET at Chase Center in San Francisco, CA, with TNT providing the broadcast coverage.

Warriors vs Nuggets Betting Analysis

The Nuggets finally got on the board with a victory in Game 4, outlasting the Warriors 126-121. Reigning MVP and current NBA MVP odds favorite Nikola Jokic led the way with 37 points, and dished out one of his six assists to Will Barton in the dying seconds to preserve the win.

Jokic added eight boards and is now averaging 28 points, five assists and 11 rebounds during the First Round. With numbers like that you’d expect the series to be more competitive, but Denver has had no answer for Golden State.

Even with Steph Curry banged up and coming off the bench, the Warriors are still averaging 122 points per outing through four games.

Curry led the way with 33 points in Game 4, despite missing 13 of his 23 attempts and shooting just 3-of-11 from behind the arc. The two-time MVP also missed four free throws, something he had never done before in his Hall-of-Fame career.

Klay Thompson meanwhile, caught fire for Golden State in the second half scoring 22 of his 32 points in the final 24 minutes. He was 7-of-11 from three, while the rest of team was a combined 5-of-23.

Curry is expected to return to the starting lineup on Wednesday, and for the first time this series he won’t have a minutes restriction.

That spells trouble for the Nuggets, since that means more of Curry and Draymond Green on the floor at the same time. The Warriors outscored their opposition by 14.8 points per 100 possessions with the duo on the floor together during the regular season. So far during the playoffs Golden State has a +29.3 rating when Curry and Green play together.

Warriors vs Nuggets Pick

The Warriors racked up 16 and 20 point wins in Games 1 and 2 at home and now return to the Chase Center where they’re 31-10 this season. Both the first two games in Golden State exceeded the total, as did Games 3 and 4 in Denver.

Dating back to the regular season, the over has hit in five straight Warriors games and in eight of the Nuggets past 10 outings. It’s surprising and possibly a mistake by the books that the Game 5 total is only 226.

Each of the first four games in this series have produced at least 230 points. Golden State ranks first in offensive rating during the postseason and Denver ranks last in defensive rating.

These two teams were first and third respectively during the regular season in effective field goal percentage. Game 4 produced a healthy 247 points with both teams shooting above 50%.

Neither team is turnover prone and I’m willing to bet the offensive efficiency continues for the Nuggets and Warriors. Take advantage of a total that is simply too low and bet the over.

Pick: Over 226 (-110) 

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